Tanker - Weekly Market Monitor
Week 40 | October 9, 2025
This week’s analysis examines evolving dirty freight and supply trends across the AG, WAFR, and Mediterranean, alongside a notable acceleration in outbound crude volumes from Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia.
Spotlight of the Week: Seaborne Oil Exports | Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S.
Seaborne oil exports rose 10.4% year-on-year in September, the sharpest annual gain since early 2023, as shipments from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. continued to accelerate.
2025 flows have consistently tracked above 2024 levels, with total exports surpassing 700 million barrels in September amid robust activity from the Middle East and Atlantic Basin producers.
The sustained strength in flows is underpinned by higher oil output, with Saudi production climbing toward 9.8 mbd, Russia approaching its 9.415 mbd OPEC+ ceiling, and U.S. output projected at 13.5 mbd, a record high. The latest OPEC+ decision to add a further 137,000 barrels per day (b/d) from November reinforces the strong supply outlook, suggesting that seaborne volumes are likely to hold firm through Q4 and sustain elevated vessel utilization across long-haul West-to-East trades.
In the upcoming month, India is expected to increase imports of discounted Russian crude, based on initial vessel-tracking data. September arrivals reached 55.9 million barrels, a 17.38% increase month-on-month but a 1.87% decrease year-on-year. Early-October data indicate a further rise, with the 7-day moving average as of October 8 showing seaborne arrivals near 2.0 million barrels per day, up from around 1.0 million barrels in early September. The forecast for higher inflows is closely linked to a renewed widening of Urals discounts. Trade sources report November loadings at $2–$2.50 per barrel below Dated Brent, compared with roughly $1 per barrel in July–August.
FREIGHT | VLCC weaker, Suezmax mixed in early October
VLCC freight rates softened further in early October, with MEG–China down 16% w/w to WS 68.5. The pullback followed Q3’s sharp rally, echoing across other key routes: MEG–Singapore fell 18.6% to WS 70, MEG–USG slipped 10% to WS 45, and WAF–China eased 7.5% to WS 74. Despite these corrections, quarter-to-date averages remain higher, up 39% on MEG–China and 47% on MEG–USG versus Q2, reflecting a still-tight tonnage balance.
In the Suezmax segment, rate movements were mixed. West Africa–UKC rose 12.8% to WS 110, MEG–Far East increased 8.5% to WS 127.5, while Black Sea–Med slipped 1.7% to WS 142.5. MEG–Med gained 6.6% to WS 105 before the end of the week.
VLCC | Congestion
China (Discharge Area)
Congestion of VLCCs at Chinese discharge ports has significantly decreased, with an average of 32 vessels, a notable drop from the peak of 47 observed in early November 2024. However, congestion remains well above the early-year trough of 20 vessels
AG (Load Area)
Congestion in the Arabian Gulf has seen a significant reduction, with the number of vessels falling sharply from 60 in mid-year to only 31. This notable decline is one of the most substantial observed recently, pointing to improved vessel turnaround times and more efficient loading operations.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform