Over the past few years, the World Trade Organization’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics has become an essential barometer of the shifting tides in global commerce. In the wake of the severe disruptions of the early 2020s, world trade has gradually regained its footing, supported by the reconfiguration of supply chains and the return of industrial activity and consumer demand. Yet, this recovery has been far from uniform. Structural inflation, persistent monetary tightening, and geopolitical fragmentation have reshaped trade patterns, while new technological and energy transitions continue to redefine the composition of global flows. The 2023 edition of the WTO’s outlook reflected a moment of moderation, capturing a deceleration in merchandise trade after the strong rebound that followed the pandemic. By 2024, the tone became cautiously optimistic again, as the world economy displayed resilience despite mounting uncertainty. The latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 now reveal a more complex picture – one of short-term strength buoyed by frontloaded demand and policy support, followed by renewed headwinds as cyclical and structural constraints reassert themselves.
The WTO’s October update revises global trade projections sharply upward for 2025, now expecting merchandise volumes to grow by 2.4 percent – an improvement from 0.9 percent in August and a remarkable reversal from the -0.2 percent contraction forecast in April. However, this renewed optimism for 2025 is tempered by a downgraded outlook for 2026, when trade growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent, down from 1.8 percent previously. Combined, the two-year forecast implies cumulative growth of 2.9 percent, slightly above April’s 2.3 percent projection. This adjustment largely reflects the delayed impact of U.S. tariff hikes. Many importers accelerated shipments in anticipation of higher duties, boosting global trade volumes in early 2025 – a frontloading effect that temporarily strengthened the data. This was further amplified by heightened global demand for AI-related goods, particularly semiconductors, servers, and data infrastructure, which spurred intra-regional trade within Asia and trans-Pacific flows with North America. Macroeconomic conditions also lent support. Global disinflation eased pressure on household budgets, while targeted fiscal stimulus and tight labour markets in major economies sustained consumer spending. Yet, despite this encouraging first-half performance, WTO analysts warn that such momentum may not last.
Regional performance during the first half of 2025 illustrates the unevenness of the recovery. Asia continued to anchor global trade growth, with exports rising 10.4 percent year-on-year, driven by robust manufacturing output and stable regional supply chains. Africa and Latin America also performed strongly, with exports up 6.3 and 7.4 percent respectively. The Middle East saw moderate expansion, while Europe remained virtually flat. On the import side, all regions registered positive growth. South America led with a 14.7 percent increase, followed closely by Africa at 13.7 percent and North America at 9.4 percent, though the latter saw a sharp contraction between quarters. Asia’s import volumes rose by 5.8 percent, while Europe and the CIS trailed with 2.4 and 2.2 percent, respectively. However, the quarter-on-quarter figures reveal that outside Asia, momentum has already begun to wane. Looking ahead, the 2026 projections mark a clear shift toward moderation. The largest downward revisions were recorded for the Middle East on the export side and North America on the import side, reflecting the delayed drag of higher tariffs and slower global demand.
Against this backdrop, geopolitical tensions returned to the forefront at the end of the week. China’s Ministry of Transport announced that, starting 14 October, it will impose special port fees on vessels owned or operated by U.S. entities, in retaliation for Washington’s new levies on Chinese ships under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act. The new Chinese fees, set initially at 400 yuan per net tonne (USD 56.3), will apply to vessels built, flagged, operated or majority-owned by U.S. interests, including those where U.S. shareholders hold a 25 percent or greater stake. The fees will escalate annually and apply to a maximum of five voyages per vessel each year, charged only at the first port of call in China. Given that many publicly listed shipowners have significant U.S. shareholder bases – often exceeding the threshold – clarity is urgently needed on how the new rules will be enforced. The uncertainty also extends to charterers, as the definition of “operator” remains ambiguous. Should chartered tonnage fall under the same category, the repercussions could reach far beyond ownership structures, affecting vessel deployment decisions and cargo allocation strategies.
The timing of the measure is notable. Coming days before the United States implements its own port fees on Chinese vessels. China’s retaliatory move introduces a fresh layer of geopolitical tension but, paradoxically, one that could prove positive for the shipping markets in the short term. By imposing special port fees on vessels with significant U.S. ownership or affiliation, Beijing has effectively added friction to established trade flows, potentially disrupting normal vessel rotations and creating regional inefficiencies. In practice, this could reduce the immediate availability of tonnage for Chinesebound cargoes, leading to tighter supply and a firmer freight environment. In a market that thrives on dislocation and inefficiency, such policy-driven disruption could inject renewed momentum into sentiment as we move deeper into the final quarter. Beyond the immediate horizon though, the broader implications remain uncertain.
Data source: Doric