The Middle East Gulf ends the week with 87 inbound VLCCs chasing 77 stems. On Monday, the balance was almost even at 81 ships against 80 stems. At the same time, fresh tanker attacks in Hormuz and a security alert at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub have raised questions about how many of those ships will actually quote.
By Per Barre
The buildup extends beyond the Gulf
Global stems are down 10% from last Friday’s 183, while the number of VLCCs underway in ballast is up 13% from 254. The Far East accounts for nine of the 21 additional ballasters since Monday. Of the 145 ballasting from the Far East this morning, 51 are heading to the Gulf and 41 to Southeast Asia. More ships are repositioning across the eastern market even as the global cargo list contracts.
Laden movements tell a different story. The global count underway jumped 18 to 253 overnight, while loaded vessels classed as idle fell 20 to 112. Together, those two categories fell by two ships. The jump in laden ships underway is consistent with ships getting moving after loading or waiting. It gives little evidence on its own of a fresh wave of cargoes. Gulf-origin laden ships rose by five, West Africa added six, and the US Gulf and Caribbean shed two.
Hormuz traffic is still moving, but exits have slowed
Iran reported on Thursday that three more tankers had been damaged in the strait. Separately, UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded incident reports from at least five vessels since Sunday. The latest complete weekly transit data for non-Iranian-linked vessels show the imbalance that preceded those reports. Eastbound exits fell to 43 from 67, while westbound entries rose to 73 from 57. The same review identified 15 VLCCs that had switched from Iranian, Russian or Venezuelan trading into compliant Gulf trades since the conflict began, showing how the pool of willing ships has changed.
Saudi Arabia’s bypass is also in focus. Civil defence issued and later cleared a warning near Yanbu, the kingdom’s Red Sea oil export hub. October crude tanker traffic through Suez reached 47.1 million dwt, about 6% above the pre-crisis monthly average, helped by Saudi use of Yanbu and Russian crude flows. A disruption at Yanbu would put pressure on an outlet that has taken on more of the Saudi export load. Brent traded back above $100 early Friday following the week’s selloff.
Where freight and fixing diverge
The October 30 Baltic assessments put Gulf–China at $1.35 million/day on a standard round-trip basis, against $699,000/day for Gulf of Oman–China, $632,000/day for West Africa–China and $477,000/day for US Gulf–China. Those dated assessments show how far apart the routes were priced. The Gulf–China benchmark is also being contested in the Mercuria–Baltic Exchange trial, where the dispute centers on how the route has been assessed during the Hormuz disruption.
Fixing call. The cargo trend favors softer rates where charterers have several acceptable ships for the same laycan. Prompt Gulf stems are more exposed to the withdrawal of even a few owners. On the aggregate count, 10 of the 87 ballasters dropping out would erase the entire surplus. The next signal is how many ships quote firm and meet the laycan on individual Gulf stems, especially if the next round of security reports keeps owners on the sidelines.