Gulf cargo activity has recovered, but incoming ships have matched the increase. Employment per stem has shortened, and peace talks introduce a fresh risk for owners: a shrinking security premium before cargo demand strengthens.
By Per Barre
More stems have not tightened the Gulf. Cargoes and incoming ballasters each increased by three, leaving the numerical balance one ship long. Average employment per stem fell 4.6%, while total Gulf vessel-days declined 1.0%. More recorded cargoes are absorbing less aggregate fleet time.
The global recovery lacks punch. Stems increased 0.6% and vessel-days rose 0.8%. Yet employment remains 6.6% below October 30. Demand has stabilised; it has not accelerated enough to establish a stronger negotiating position for owners.
Available tonnage remains decisive. The latest tracking update recorded seven Hormuz crossings on November 2, against eight the previous day, and eight likely-empty VLCCs off Fujairah. Ships are nearby, but position, suitability and willingness to transit determine how much capacity can compete.
Peace could squeeze freight before it revives cargoes. A draft proposal is circulating after Qatari mediation, but no agreement is confirmed. Iran’s proposed reopening of Hormuz within two days depends on an agreement. Substantial differences remain, while fresh US strikes near the strait underline the continuing escalation risk.
Next week: the risk premium is vulnerable. Credible progress toward safe passage could encourage more owners to compete, giving charterers greater choice. Without an agreement, operational risk should continue supporting acceptable, willing tonnage.
Second week: cargo recovery must do the heavy lifting. Restored loadings could rebuild demand, although additional willing ships and shorter delays could offset that benefit. Firmer freight requires cargo growth to outpace available supply and absorb more vessel-days.
At 83 stems against 84 incoming ballasters, owners have little numerical cushion if diplomacy starts removing the premium that disruption has preserved.