By Eirini Diamantara & Dimitris Roumeliotis
China’s dry bulk market usually fades into the Lunar New Year, yet the first three weeks of 2026 are doing the opposite: volumes are firmer year on year, tonne-miles are improving, and freight is refusing to “switch off”. That matters for the S&P market because liquidity follows confidence, and confidence follows cargo.
On demand, Chinese seaborne imports of iron ore, coal and bauxite for 1–23 January totalled 141.45 million tonnes, up 6.2% from 133.25 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. Iron ore did the heavy lifting, rising to 75.38 million tonnes from 67.22 million, while bauxite improved to 15.65 million tonnes from 14.40 million. Thermal coal was broadly flat at 47.25 million tonnes, but metallurgical coal slipped to 2.74 million tonnes from 3.39 million, a reminder that the steel chain remains selective.
The more tradable story is the origin mix. West Australia rose to 48.23 million tonnes (from 41.78 million), while the Atlantic side of Africa increased to 14.17 million tonnes (from 12.21 million). Brazil was steady at 13.25 million tonnes, and Indonesia softened to 11.91 million tonnes (from 12.77 million). This is not academic: it converts into voyage length and vessel days. The vessel breakdown confirms it: Capesize-linked volumes rose to 66.72 million tonnes from 59.34 million, VLOC activity climbed to 14.31 million tonnes from 13.36 million, and Panamax improved to 22.68 million tonnes from 21.89 million. Supramax edged up to 17.13 million tonnes from 16.70 million, but Handymax and Handysize slipped to 9.35 million tonnes (from 10.16 million) and 4.44 million tonnes (from 5.78 million), highlighting where demand is concentrated.
Freight mirrored that split. The Baltic Capesize 5TC opened at $24,687/day, slid to a mid-month low of $16,226/day on 15 January, then snapped back to $21,279/day on 21 January before easing to $19,976/day on 22 January. Panamax strengthened more steadily, with the BPI-74 average moving from $10,200/day on 2 January to $13,189/day by 22 January. Smaller sizes have not shared the same momentum: Supramax and Handysize averages moved from $11,567/day and $12,329/day on 2 January to $10,851/day and $10,760/day by 22 January, signalling that the rally is being led by long-haul and mid-sized employment rather than a broad-based lift.
Two threads help explain why Capes are holding up into late January. First, coal flows are being reshaped: December metallurgical coal imports rose strongly month on month, with inland Mongolia still dominant, but seaborne arrivals from Australia and Canada accelerating, while US-origin cargoes remained heavily curtailed by tariff friction. Second, charterers appear to be covering long-haul programs earlier than usual, particularly iron ore and bauxite ex Brazil and West Africa. With capesize fleet growth having been restrained in recent years, any sustained increase in Atlantic supply has a direct multiplier on tonne-miles, and the first Guinea cargoes linked to Simandou only reinforce the longer-term direction of travel.
For asset markets, the message is straightforward: when long-haul demand keeps Capes printing near $20k/day into the holiday window, older tonnage becomes liquid again, while modern ships command a premium for optionality. If this rhythm survives the holidays, the next leg is less about whether freight can bounce, and more about how fast S&P prices reprice that bounce into steel.
Data source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.