Tanker - Weekly Market Monitor
Snapshot of Crude and Product Freight Rates, Supply-Demand
Week 36, 05 Sept, 2025
Nigeria has re-emerged as a key player in global oil markets, with production reaching new heights in July. Output averaged 1.71 million bpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), up 9.9% year-on-year.
Terminal performance underlines the recovery. Bonny posted 8.07 million barrels in July, a 13% jump from June, while Forcados edged higher to 9.04 million barrels, up 2.1% month-on-month. Yet, despite the strong momentum, volumes remain short of Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd), underscoring both the progress made and the challenge of sustaining higher output. Export flows reflect the rebound. Dirty oil shipments surged at the end of Q1 and continued into the summer, with France, Spain, and the U.S. remaining the major buyers.
India has proven to be a significant market. Nigerian exports to India reached a high of over 11 million barrels in March, then decreased to 7 million barrels in August, which is still more than double the levels seen in the same period last year.
One factor behind the shift has been lower buying activity from Indian refiners. Since late Q1, India’s imports of Russian crude dipped by 17% in April and 8% in May, before showing a modest 7% rebound in August.
Russia's refining capacity has been significantly impacted by Ukraine's drone strikes, with approximately 17% disabled across facilities in Syzran, Volgograd, Saratov, Ryazan, and Krasnodar, raising concerns about supply reliability. Further uncertainty stems from U.S. warnings regarding restrictions on India's purchases of Russian oil, which could strengthen Nigeria's position as a more secure alternative supplier.
This situation is already evident in the growth of oil tonne-days. Reduced Russian flows to the Far East have slowed tonne-day growth since late summer, though current levels remain about one-third above the seasonal norm of the past two years. This creates a favorable environment for Nigeria, where the recent July production increase, if sustained, together with shifting global demand dynamics, could enhance its role as a stronger supplier in the months ahead.
Following a summer increase, VLCC freight rates on the MEG-China route have decreased to WS 66. Nevertheless, this still represents a significant 40% rise on a monthly basis.
Suezmax rates on the Black Sea – Mediterannean route have surged at WS140, up 30% on a monthly basis.
A downward trend is seen in Aframax rates in the Mediterranean, which have dipped to WS 130, representing a 13% monthly decline.
Freight rates for the AG–Japan route have increased to WS 157. This marks a gradual rise, following a previous surge in mid-June when rates surpassed WS 200.
The VLCC count at Ras Tanura has reached approximately 68 vessels, marking a decrease of about 28 from the Week 28 peak. Concurrently, Suezmax vessel availability in West Africa remains low, despite signs of an increase, with the vessel count approaching the annual average trend of 59.
In early September, clean tanker supply for LR2 vessels began to decrease. Specifically, in the Arabian Gulf, LR2 availability is significantly lower than the annual average of 11 vessels. Conversely, MR1 vessel activity at Skikda shows an increasing trend, recently reaching a new peak of 44, up from a low of 35 during week 32.
Dirty tonne days: Over the past six weeks, dirty tonne-days in the VLCC segment have remained significantly below the annual average growth rate. Conversely, the Suezmax segment experienced a spike in tonne-days during the summer, which continued into early September. The Aframax segment also saw persistent, albeit weakening, tonneday growth, with levels significantly below the annual average, similar to the VLCC segment.
Clean tonne days:.In early September, the clean tanker segment's seasonal tonne-day development showed varied trends. Panamax and MR1 tanker levels were below the annual average, while the MR2 segment has indicated stronger growth over the past four weeks.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform