It’s already been six months since the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and the tanker market is approaching a critical crossroads. Whether the Strait reopens or remains constrained into 2027 will shape the landscape, the global oil flows and how the market absorbs a growing wave of new tanker capacity.
For now, disruption continues to support freight through vessel inefficiency. Alternative loading points, longer voyages, STS operations and vessel repositioning have tightened effective tonnage supply, even as Middle Eastern exports remain below normal levels. According to Veson, global oil flows were down around 7% in the first half of 2026, while global oil inventories have fallen approximately 5% from their February peak.
The question is what happens next.
Scenario 1
If Hormuz remains constrained into 2027, the tanker market could continue to benefit from inefficient trading patterns, longer voyages and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. But this is not an unlimited upside scenario. BIMCO estimates that if disruption persists throughout 2026 and 2027, crude tanker demand could decline by 11–13% this year and another 8.5–10.5% in 2027, as lower Gulf exports and potential demand destruction eventually outweigh the benefits of longer voyages.
Scenario 2
A reopening would create a very different dynamic. Middle East-to-Asia cargo volumes should gradually recover, potentially supported by inventory rebuilding. Under its reopening scenario, BIMCO forecasts crude tanker demand growth of 6.5–8.5% in 2027.
However, recovering demand will meet a growing fleet.
BIMCO expects crude tanker supply to expand 5–6% in 2027, while Clarksons data earlier this year pointed to around 62 VLCC, 56 Suezmax and 88 Aframax deliveries scheduled for the year. Meanwhile, the longer-term supply picture has become considerably heavier: It is estimated that the VLCC orderbook has climbed to roughly 35% of the existing fleet, with around 83% of VLCCs ordered during the first half of 2026 scheduled for delivery in 2028–29.
This makes 2027 a potential transition year for tanker market.
If Hormuz reopens, recovering cargo volumes and inventory rebuilding could initially absorb much of the incoming capacity, but normalization would also unwind STS activity, diversions and geopolitical freight premiums. If it stays constrained, vessel inefficiencies could remain supportive, but declining underlying oil flows become an increasingly important risk.
For tanker market, the next phase will therefore be a race between recovering cargo demand, returning vessel efficiency and a growing fleet.