India Becoming More Of An Issue For Dry Bulk

By Jeffrey Landsberg

As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Executive Report, India is on pace to produce 116.7 billion kilowatt hours of electricity this month.  This would mark a month-on-month decline of 11.9 billion kilowatt hours (-9%) and a year-on-year decline of 4.4 billion kilowatt hours (-4%).  This would mark the seventh time in the last eleven months that India’s total electricity production has contracted on a year-on-year basis.  Significant for the dry bulk market is that coal-derived electricity generation is on pace to total 104.5 billion kilowatt hours.  This would mark a month-on-month decline of 11.2 billion kilowatt hours (-10%) and a year-on-year decline of 5.4 billion kilowatt hours (-5%).  This would mark the eighth time in the last eleven months that India’s coal-derived electricity production has contracted on a year-on-year basis.  

As we have stressed often in our Weekly Executive Reports, such a sustained contraction in India’s coal-derived electricity generation is very rare.  Much warmer than usual weather has continued throughout parts of India and remains a headwind on electricity demand.  Hydropower production has also continued to grow.  India’s economy has also faced struggles at times recently.