The recent escalation between the United States and Iran has quickly become one of the most disruptive geopolitical events for global shipping in recent years. At the center of the situation lies the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply and a large share of LNG exports normally pass.
Following the escalation in late February, threats and attacks on transit vessels near the Strait significantly disrupted normal shipping activity. As a result, many shipowners and charterers have paused or reassessed voyages in the region.
Shipping activity has dropped sharply. According to Signal Ocean, tanker movements through the Strait have fallen to extremely low levels, with several vessels waiting in the Gulf while operators evaluate security risks.
The tanker sector now is placed at the center of disruption. As Breakwave Advisors notes, Gulf crude exports rely almost entirely on seaborne transportation, with roughly 14–15 million barrels per day normally passing through the Strait before the crisis.
At the same time, operational risks have increased significantly. War-risk insurance premiums have surged, and some voyages through the region can now cost several million dollars in additional coverage. Security threats remain elevated, prompting some shipowners to delay sailings or keep vessels outside the Gulf.
Beyond shipping, the disruption is also affecting global energy markets. Oil prices have become increasingly volatile, while Gulf producers explore alternative export routes that cannot fully replace shipments through Hormuz.
For shipping markets, the key question now is how long the disruption will last. If tensions ease, tanker traffic could resume relatively quickly. But if the situation persists, it could lead to longer-term changes in global crude trade flows.
For now, as Breakwave describes it, the industry is effectively “sailing into the unknown.”