Soybeans have again emerged as one of the most influential variables for dry bulk demand, especially for Kamsarmax vessels that anchor the Brazil–China and US–China export corridors. Today’s combination of ongoing US–China trade frictions, exceptional South American harvests, and China’s unusually heavy stockpiles is subtly but materially reshaping global tonne-mile patterns. On paper, the soybean balance still looks constructive. Global consumption keeps nudging to new highs and, beyond 2025/26, forecasts point to a gradual drawdown in world stocks and a lower stocks-to-use ratio. That would normally imply firm prices and sustained trade flows. Yet the geographical distribution of that demand matters more to shipowners than the headline totals. The US has cut back on soybean plantings after repeated trade shocks, while Brazil continues to nudge acreage higher and is cementing its position as China’s preferred supplier.
With trade patterns continuing to adjust, attention inevitably turns to how the US fits into China’s forward import strategy. For the US, the new “deal” with China to buy 12 Mt of soybeans in late 2025 and around 25 Mt a year thereafter is a partial recovery rather than a return to the pre-trade war status quo. Even if Beijing delivers on those numbers, annual Chinese buying of US beans would still sit below the averages seen in the first half of the 2020s. In the meantime, US exporters have responded by widening their export footprint, channeling greater volumes into secondary markets as Chinese purchases lag. More beans and soymeal are moving to Mexico, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Corn exports have also surged, offsetting some of the lost soybean liftings. That keeps Panamax/Supramax employment reasonably healthy but, in many cases, on shorter hauls than the classic US Gulf–China run, trimming tonne-miles.
Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Argentina have seized the opportunity. Brazil’s exports have surged to record levels, with China at taking close to four-fifths of Brazilian soybean shipments. Argentina has briefly relaxed export taxes and pushed more beans into China as well. Yet this surge in South American arrivals has created its own challenges within China. Months of aggressive buying from ECSA have left port stocks at record levels. Indeed, Continuous inflows have lifted port inventories to around 10.3 Mt, roughly 3.6 Mt y-o-y while crushers are holding close to 7.5 Mt, the largest volume recorded since 2017. Traders estimate that state reserves may stand near 45 Mt, amounting to several months of early-year demand. At the same time, soymeal prices have fallen sharply and crushers are running at negative margins. In that environment, there is limited commercial incentive for Chinese buyers, especially state firms, to immediately ramp up additional US purchases, even with tariff waivers. The scale of these inventories indicates that China’s import requirements may ease in the near term, as domestic users work through existing stocks before engaging in further large-scale purchases, particularly if the agreed volumes from the United States do materialize, which could come at the expense of Brazil’s export momentum.
For shipping, that would have two layers of impact. Elevated Chinese inventories increase the likelihood that a portion of the agreed U.S. purchase program is deferred into the first quarter of 2026, rather than being completed within the 2025 calendar window. Such a shift would place U.S. arrivals closer to Brazil’s postharvest export season in March–April, potentially altering the usual sequencing of flows into China and influencing the balance between U.S and ECSA loadings during that period. Second, any prolonged destocking phase in China could redirect more U.S. beans toward smaller, more price-sensitive buyers in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. That tends to fragment cargo sizes and opens more opportunities for Supramax and even Handy tonnage, though typically on lower tonne-mile volumes.
Looking ahead to 2026, the USDA’s projection that China will increase soybean imports is not impossible, particularly if feed demand continues to grow and policy-driven cuts in meal inclusion rates prove difficult to maintain. However, we remain cautious about expecting this incremental demand to translate into a proportionate recovery for U.S. exports, given China’s currently bloated stocks and the strong position ECSA suppliers now hold in its procurement system. For owners, the key takeaway is that soybean trade is becoming structurally more multipolar. That should support underlying grain and oilseed volumes for Kamsarmax, while giving Supramax and Handysize players a richer mix of regional soymeal and minor grain cargoes, but with more volatility in route patterns, and less certainty regarding the stability of China’s soybean import patterns compared with a decade ago.
Data Source: Intermodal