As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Executive Report, China’s coal production totaled 361.8 million tons in August. This is up month-on-month by 18.6 million tons (5%) but down year-on-year by 28.6 million tons (-7%). Remaining very significant is that the last time there was any year-on-year growth was back in June 2025. Prior to the current fourteen-month period of contraction, China's coal production had grown on a year-on-year basis for thirteen straight months.
Coal-derived electricity generation totaled 602 billion kilowatt hours. This is up month-on-month by 17.9 billion kilowatt hours (3%) but down year-on-year by 25.4 billion kilowatt hours (-4%). Very helpful for coal import demand and the dry bulk market is that China's coal-derived electricity generation has now fared better than coal production for eight straight months. A troubling thought, though, is where would the dry bulk market be if coal production was not in contraction?
Total electricity production came in at 943.8 billion kilowatt hours. This is down month-on-month by just 100 million kilowatt hours from July's record and up year-on-year by 7.5 billion kilowatt hours (1%). China’s consumer market remains weak and renewables also continue to experience robust growth. Coal-derived electricity generation remains under pressure as a result of these factors and it is not clear if a rebound is coming soon. China’s coal-derived electricity generation has now contracted on a year-on-year basis for two straight months.
