By Eirini Diamantara & Dimitris Roumeliotis
Dry bulk trade from the Black Sea has moved into a markedly weaker phase during the summer months, with exports from Russia and Ukraine falling sharply compared with the preceding spring period. Based on Signal Ocean data, between June and August 2026, combined dry bulk shipments reached 21.60 million MT, down 42.0% from the 37.27 million MT exported during March–May. Cargo departures followed the same direction, declining from 2,323 to 1,302 voyages, a 43.9% contraction. Although part of this fall reflects the normal transition between agricultural seasons, the magnitude of the decline increasingly points to geopolitical and operational disruption rather than seasonality alone.
June was clearly the strongest month of the summer, with Russia and Ukraine shipping a combined 11.46 million MT across 683 cargoes. Russia accounted for 7.07 million MT and Ukraine for 4.39 million MT, supported by remaining old-crop agricultural volumes and relatively steady mineral flows. In July, however, activity weakened considerably. Combined exports fell to 8.01 million MT, 30.1% below June, with Russian volumes declining to 5.38 million MT and Ukrainian shipments to 2.63 million MT. The usual pre-harvest lull played a role, but deteriorating security conditions also began to affect vessel availability, port operations and chartering appetite.
The deterioration became significantly more visible in August. As of August 26, combined recorded loadings stand at only 2.13 million MT, comprising 1.76 million MT from Russia and just 0.37 million MT from Ukraine. These figures remain incomplete and should improve as month-end operations are recorded, yet the current gap is too large to be explained purely by timing. Since July, attacks on port facilities, terminals and commercial vessels have intensified across the region. Ukrainian deepwater ports have operated under severe pressure, while Russian grain terminals around Novorossiysk and navigation through parts of the Azov-Black Sea system have also faced disruption. Market reports indicate that these attacks have delayed cargoes, restricted export capacity and made owners increasingly reluctant to commit tonnage without substantially higher freight and war-risk compensation.
The three-month comparison highlights that Ukraine has absorbed the heavier impact. Russian Black Sea dry bulk exports declined 37.6%, from 22.79 million MT in March–May to 14.21 million MT during June–August, while Ukrainian exports fell 49.0%, from 14.48 million MT to 7.39 million MT. Russia consequently increased its share of combined exports from 61.1% to 65.8%. Yet this should not necessarily be interpreted as Russian strength; rather, Russian flows have simply proved more resilient than Ukrainian ones. For the dry bulk market, the implications extend beyond lost tonnes. Lower Black Sea volumes reduce employment opportunities for Handysize, Supramax and Panamax tonnage traditionally active in regional grain and minor-bulk trades, while higher insurance premiums and security risks discourage owners from fixing into the area. At the same time, any redirection of grain toward alternative suppliers such as North or South America could partially compensate through longer tonne-miles. Therefore, the Black Sea is currently offering less cargo, but potentially more distance elsewhere—a trade-off that could become increasingly important for dry bulk utilisation if the disruption persists into the autumn export season.
Data source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.