As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Executive Report, China’s coal output totaled 380.9 million tons in June. This is down month-on-month by 16.3 million tons (-4%) and down year-on-year by 40.2 million tons (-10%). Last month's 10% year-on-year contraction has marked the largest contraction since 2026. Also remaining significant is that the last time there was any year-on-year growth was back in June 2025.
Coal-derived electricity generation totaled 498 billion kilowatt hours. This is up month-on-month by 25.4 billion kilowatt hours (5%) and up year-on-year by 4.1 billion kilowatt hours (1%). Very helpful for coal import demand and the dry bulk market is that China's coal-derived electricity generation has now fared better than domestic coal production for six straight months. Before these last six months, coal-derived electricity generation had fared worse than domestic coal production in three of the prior four months. Going forward, we remain very bullish for China's coal import prospects.
