A possible U.S.-Iran agreement appears to be emerging, raising the prospect of reopening of Hormuz after more than three months of disruption. The draft MoU reportedly includes, among other points, the suspension of sanctions and reopening the Strait within a 30-day window. The most contentious issues, however, appear to have been deferred to a 60-day negotiation period, including Iran’s nuclear programme and Israel’s position on ending hostilities in Lebanon.
The initial response from the shipping industry is likely to be cautious, as market participants assess whether Hormuz is safe for regular transit. A political agreement may formally reopen the Strait, but safe passage must still be proven in practice. The most visible effects are expected across energy-related segments, where Gulf exports play a central role. In tankers, the short-term impact should be clearly supportive for freight rates, as crude and product cargoes accumulated within the Gulf begin to clear. On the supply side, adjustment is likely to be gradual, as vessels reposition and tonnage trapped within the Gulf returns to normal trading patterns.
Beyond the short term, the outlook is expected to remain broadly constructive, even as available supply increases with the return of previously constrained Gulf tonnage. Robust demand dynamics should continue to underpin the market, supported by recovering oil demand, the re-emergence of non-sanctioned Iranian crude flows, and inventory rebuilding. At the same time, VLCC availability in normalised trades may remain constrained, as a meaningful share of the fleet consists of older shadow or sanctioned vessels with limited relevance in compliant market activity. That said, the positive impact may be partly moderated if Asian buyers shift toward nearby Gulf suppliers at the expense of longer-haul Atlantic Basin cargoes, reducing average voyage distances and softening the tonne-mile benefit. Still, renewed cargo activity and a tighter pool of compliant mainstream tonnage should keep the overall balance supportive.
For LNG, the key variable is the timeline for restoring Qatari output. While exports from Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, remain below normal due to infrastructure damage at Ras Laffan, LNG ton-mile demand remains supported by replacement cargoes from more distant suppliers A reopening of Hormuz would improve sentiment and ease energy-security concerns, but it would not by itself restore lost Qatari volumes. It would, however, support the normalisation of UAE exports, adding to LNG cargo activity. Once Qatari production recovers, the effect on LNG tonnage demand becomes more nuanced. Higher Qatari loadings would increase cargo activity, particularly as Qatari volumes have not been fully replaced during the disruption. At the same time, buyers are estimated to reduce long haul volumes, shortening voyage distances. The return of Qatari volumes could therefore create opposing forces: more cargoes to move, but potentially fewer long-haul voyages, while vessel oversupply tempers the market outlook.
Regarding LPG, a segment also heavily dependent on the Persian Gulf, reopening could provide short-term freight support as accumulated cargoes clear and vessels reposition. Iran’s role as a notable regional LPG supplier adds to the relevance of this recovery, particularly for Asian buyers. However, the overall impact appears more uncertain and mixed beyond the initial phase, as renewed Middle East-to-Asia flows could be partly offset by shorter voyage distances, especially after recent market strength was supported by longer-haul U.S. cargoes diverted via the Cape of Good Hope.
The direct effect on dry bulk and containerships should be positive but more limited, given their smaller exposure to Hormuz. In dry bulk, the resumption of Gulf fertilizer trade could ease foodsecurity concerns and improve the outlook for agricultural commodity trades, indirectly supporting demand. Container demand may also benefit from additional short-term loadings as vessels return to Arabian Gulf calls and built-up cargo volumes begin to move.
While recent diplomatic developments have raised optimism around a peace agreement and normalized Hormuz transits, the situation remains fragile, with key issues unresolved. For shipping, the short-term effect appears supportive, as accumulated cargoes should lift tonnage demand while vessel repositioning constrains active supply. Over time, however, this dynamic may be partially offset as easing geopolitical disruption allows Gulf exports to regain market share, leading to shorter-haul voyages and weighing on ton miles.
Data Source: Intermodal