The corn market in 2026 is characterised by well-supplied conditions, due to strong harvests across the Americas and elevated U.S. inventories. While this pricing environment bolsters consumption, it compresses producer margins. At the same time, cost-side pressures are intensifying. Fertilizer markets have come under strain amid disruptions to trade flows from the Middle East, a key export hub for nitrogen-based products, with the Food and Agriculture Organization indicating that fertilizer prices could rise by up to 20% on average in the first half of 2026, should the crisis persist. This introduces uncertainty for future corn plantings, as persistently high input costs could incentivise shifts away from fertilizer-intensive crops such as corn toward alternatives like soybeans in upcoming cycles.
At the same time, a rising share of domestic production in key exporting countries, United States and Brazil, is being absorbed domestically, primarily by the expanding ethanol production, underpinned by higher oil prices, limiting the pace of export volumes. In the United States, corn accounts for most of ethanol production, according to the EIA, while policy in favour of higher blending rates to gasoline continues to sustain biofuel demand. This dynamic creates room for alternative exporters to expand market share and broaden their base of importing partners.
Within this landscape, Argentina is expanding its footprint in the seaborne corn export market. The Rosario Board of Trade estimates a record 2025/26 corn crop at 62 million metric tons, 9.5 million tons above the previous record set in 2023/24, underscoring a marked expansion in output for the world’s third-largest corn exporter. Moreover, a notable development is the reopening of the corn trade with China, with the first bulk shipment from Timbues terminal signalling the resumption of flows after more than a decade of phytosanitary restrictions. This aligns with China’s broader food security strategy, which emphasises diversification of supply origins and precautionary stock-building in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.
Beyond the re-opening of trade with China, Argentina’s corn export momentum strengthened in March, with higher shipments to long-haul destinations across North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. According to LSEG data, exports to North Africa nearly tripled year-on-year, while shipments to Saudi Arabia and Vietnam increased by 124% and 77%, respectively.
However, operationally, there are constraints affecting efficiency. A large share of grain is loaded along the Paraná River (“Upriver” ports), where draft limitations often prevent vessels from sailing fully laden. During periods of drought or low river levels, reduced navigable depth restricts the amount of cargo that can be loaded upstream, requiring vessels to depart partially loaded and complete loading at deeper-water points further downstream or offshore. As a result, export efficiency declines, increasing voyage complexity and often requiring additional logistical steps for cargo completion.
On the demand side of the corn market, consumption remains healthy, with animal feed use rising alongside stronger meat demand in developing economies, driven by urbanisation and growth in disposable incomes. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to more precautionary purchasing behaviour among key importers, including China, where food security considerations continue to shape import strategy.
Argentina’s growing role in long-haul corn trade contributes positively to the dry bulk market, enhancing Atlantic basin dynamics through robust flows to North Africa and the Middle East, alongside potential upside from the reopening of trade with China. The Panamax and Kamsarmax segments stand to benefit most, while smaller segments are also expected to see higher activity, with further contribution by regional cargo movements. Overall, Argentina’s strengthening position in the corn export market is expected to redirect trade streams at a time of demand support from, among other factors, heightened food security concerns amid geopolitical uncertainty. While elevated input costs introduce downside risks for future crops and may eventually constrain exportable surpluses, current conditions continue to bolster seaborne trade. For dry bulk shipping, this translates into more diversified trading patterns and potential for incremental tonnage demand, primarily benefiting mid-sized bulker segments.
Data Source: Intermodal