By Eirini Diamantara & Dimitris Roumeliotis
From 1 Jan to 20 Feb 2026, the dry bulk S&P tape has been running at a materially stronger tempo compared to the same window of 2025. Based on Xclusiv’s Shipbrokers data, we count 109 bulker sales in 2026 versus 80 in 2025, a +36% year-on-year increase. That is not marginal improvement, it is a clear expansion in liquidity during a period that is usually shaped by seasonality and caution.
What makes 2026 more compelling is not only the higher volume, but the breadth of participation across sizes. Activity is led by Supramax and Handysize, with 23 deals each, followed by Ultramax at 19. Larger dwt units are also firmly present, with 16 Capesizes and 15 Kamsarmaxes changing hands, while Panamax stands at just 5. In contrast, the 2025 period was more concentrated and less balanced: Supramax (19) and Panamax (18) dominated, Handysize followed at 17, while Ultramax was limited to 4 and Capesize to 5. In short, 2026 is not a one-segment rally; it is a broader clearing of core working tonnage.
The age profile sharpens the difference in sentiment. In 2026, 11–15 year-old vessels account for 45 transactions, roughly 41% of total activity, followed by 16–20 year-olds at 30 deals, or about 28%. The 21+ bracket is limited to just 10 vessels, around 9% of the market. Compare this to 2025, where 19 vessels above 21 years were sold, representing nearly a quarter of total transactions. Last year looked more vintage-driven; this year’s mix suggests buyers are targeting remaining economic life rather than short-term scrap optionality. Country of build dynamics have also rotated. In 2026, China-built bulkers lead with 52 sales, ahead of 37 Japanese-built and 13 Korean-built units. In the same period of 2025, Japan was dominant with 44 sales, while China followed with 25 and Korea with 10. The shift is structural and reflects how liquidity has progressively re-rated Chinese-built tonnage, particularly in the mid-size segments.
On the demand side, buyer nationality remains partly masked by undisclosed accounts, which represent 67 acquisitions in 2026 versus 41 in 2025. Among identified buyers, China leads with 23 purchases in 2026, followed by Greece with 15. In 2025, China (13), Greece (11) and Vietnam (6) shared a flatter landscape. On the supply side, Greek interests remain the largest identifiable sellers, with 23 disposals in 2026 versus 22 in 2025, confirming continued portfolio reshuffling at firm asset levels.
All of this is happening with asset prices still climbing, and that is the part that turns “busy” into “meaningful”. On a one-year view (Feb 2025 to Feb 2026), indicative secondhand values are up across sizes: Capesize 10-year +22% (to $52.5m), Kamsarmax 10-year +10% (to $26.5m), Ultramax 10-year +18% (to $26.5m) and Handysize 10-year +19% (to $20.25m). But the more telling angle is where we sit inside the longer cycle. Against the 2021–2026 price history, today’s levels are not “mid-cycle comfort”; they sit at the top end of the last five years for most of the standard benchmarks. The Capesize 10-year is effectively printing a five-year high, while the mid-size segments, even if they are not always at the absolute peak tick, are still firmly in “high territory” versus their multi-year ranges. That matters for behavior: when prices are high and liquidity is still strong, buyers are effectively saying that earnings visibility (or at least optionality on it) is worth paying for, even with financing costs and replacement economics still not friendly. In simple terms, 2026 S&P is not just about more transactions; it is about more transactions at elevated pricing, which typically only happens when confidence in cash generation remains intact and owners believe time is still an ally rather than an enemy.
Data source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.