The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest forecast for the current 2025/26 season and is now predicting that global coarse grain, wheat, soybean, and soymeal exports will total 745.7 million tons. This is 6 million tons (1%) more than was predicted in January and would mark a year-on-year increase of 40.8 million tons (6%). Significant is that the forecast has been raised yet again. As we have discussed often, we have been stressing that a return of growth in grain trade (and growth in all major dry bulk commodity trade) has been needed considering that the dry bulk fleet continues to grow by a moderate amount (we are expecting a net addition of at least another 375 vessels) this year. The growth in global grain trade should not be taken for granted. In the 2024/25 season, a year-on-year contraction of 5.5 million tons (-1%) occurred.
The USDA is forecasting that global coarse grain exports in 2025/26 will total 252.1 million tons. This would mark a year-on-year increase of 24.8 million tons (11%) from the 2024/25 season. Coarse grain exports will remain the global grain market’s largest cargo by volume. A large year-on-year increase in coarse grain exports is expected from the United States. A moderate year-on-year increase is expected from Argentina. Small year-on-year increases are expected from Ukraine and Brazil.
