Discussions on Capesize trade growth opportunities from West Africa have focused on Guinea, thanks to soaring bauxite exports and the long-awaited start of iron ore operations from the Simandou project, from where five ore shipments have been recorded to date.
This week newswires reported an ambitious claim from Liberia’s mines minister that the country’s iron ore exports will triple from 10m tonnes in 2025.
There is an added dimension to the expansion as Capesize vessels became involved in Liberian iron ore trades during the 2H 2025 and are set for greater involvement this year, effectively creating a new Capesize trade.
Liberia’s iron ore exports averaged 4.2m tonnes a year between 2020 and 2024, according to official importer data and vessel tracking from AXSMarine.
Unlike many other West African exporters, the vast majority of Liberian iron ore was directed towards European markets, as a result of Liberian mine ownership by Europe’s largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal.
In contrast, China’s annual imports of Liberian iron ore have been just below 1m tonnes in the last two years.
Due to draft constraints at Buchanan, Liberian iron ore trade has, until recently, been dominated by Supramax and Ultramax tonnage.
Moreover, last year saw several loadings at Buchanan on to Standard Capes and Newcastlemaxes (mostly to China) following rail and port infrastructure upgrades. The chart, above right, highlights these in red and compares them to loadings on to bulkers of 130,000+ dwt from Gabon, Ghana, Mauritania and Sierra Leone.
Last year also saw a jump in iron ore imports from Liberia to near 10m tonnes—an annual all-time high—as ArcelorMittal ramped up production at its new concentrator towards “Phase 2 capacity” of 20m tonnes/year. The concentrator will enable higher shipments of sinter feed blend (a better product for end-users).
While small at present, there is scope for a sizeable jump in the Capesize share, as preparations are made for regular callings of larger vessels through 2026.
In the company’s results presentation this month, a shipment target of 18m tonnes for 2026 was made public, representing a yearly gain of 8m tonnes and three times the 2024 shipped volume, if realised.
This week, Liberia’s mines minister made an even more ambitious claim for the country’s iron ore exports in 2026.
In a newswire report, the minister declared 25–30m tonnes of iron ore is expected to be shipped from the entire country from 10m tonnes in 2025, once “new and revived” mining projects enter operation.
In addition, ArcelorMittal confirmed rail infrastructure is being expanded to 30m tonnes/year, for its exclusive use, as the company pursues export growth beyond Phase 2.
Although not on the same scale as Guinea, Liberia’s iron ore export expansion is significant for Capesize demand growth prospects.