As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Executive Report, global steel production totaled approximately 142.4 million tons in September. This is down month-on-month by 1.8 million tons (-1%) and but up year-on-year by 600,000 tons. Steel production ex-China totaled approximately 68.8 million tons. This is down month-on-month by 800,000 tons (-1%) but up year-on-year by 500,000 tons (1%).
Steel production ex-China has now increased on a year-on-year basis for six straight months. Previously, it had contracted on a year-on-year basis for two straight months. China’s steel output remains in a contraction however.
Indian steel output totaled 13.9 million tons last month. This is down month-on-month by 900,000 tons (-6%) but is up year-on-year by 300,000 tons (2%). Production has now grown on a year-on-year basis for forty-three straight months.
Overall, it is reasonable to expect that steel output ex-China will soon be back in a contraction. We remain concerned for iron ore trade prospects. It is not just price that is low (which is affecting things on the supply side). Demand is also decreasing.