By Eirini Diamantara & Dimitris Roumeliotis
Dry bulk supply growth has remained relatively manageable over the past three years, but the market is now moving into a more challenging phase as the orderbook expands and the delivery schedule becomes heavier. Across the Handysize, Supramax/Ultramax, Panamax/Kamsarmax and Capesize/Newcastlemax segments, the combined fleet has grown from approximately 972.4 mills DWT at the end of 2023 to around 1.066 bn DWT currently, an increase of about 9.6%. Annual fleet growth remained close to 3% in both 2024 and 2025 before accelerating modestly so far in 2026. The main feature of this expansion is not simply its pace, but its uneven distribution. Handysize capacity has grown much faster than the rest of the fleet since end-2023, while Capesize/Newcastlemax supply has expanded considerably more slowly. At the same time, the forward orderbook has shifted in the opposite direction, with the greatest future supply exposure now concentrated in the larger segments. This suggests that the composition of fleet growth over the next two years could look quite different from what the market has experienced recently. Low demolition has so far allowed most newbuilding deliveries to translate almost directly into fleet expansion. Around 33.3 mills DWT was delivered in 2024 against only 3.8 mills DWT recycled, followed by 35.9 mills DWT of deliveries and 5.3 mills DWT of demolition in 2025. During 2026 to date, approximately 32.9 mills DWT has already entered the fleet, while only 2.8 mills DWT has exited. This persistent lack of recycling has kept net additions close to 30 mills DWT per year. The forward picture is more demanding. The dry bulk orderbook has increased from around 8.0% of the fleet in DWT terms at the end of 2023 to approximately 15.0% currently. The Capesize/Newcastlemax orderbook now stands at around 18.7% of the existing fleet, while Supramax/Ultramax is at 15.2% and Panamax/Kamsarmax at 13.1%. Scheduled deliveries for 2027 alone amount to approximately 52.1 mills DWT, equivalent to around 4.9% of the current fleet. On headline numbers, this points to greater supply pressure. However, gross deliveries should not be treated as equivalent to net effective fleet growth. Around 12.8% of the existing dry bulk fleet by vessel count is already more than 20 years old, with the proportion even higher in several smaller and mid-sized segments. This creates significant recycling potential and suggests that part of the incoming capacity could ultimately replace ageing tonnage rather than simply add to total effective supply. Demand fundamentals remain supportive, but not strong enough to remove the supply question altogether. Total seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to increase by around 1.7% in 2027, with iron ore growing at a similar pace, while coal and grains remain comparatively subdued. Bauxite continues to stand out as the strongest growth area, with volumes expected to rise by around 7.3%, while minor bulks are also projected to post moderate gains. The quality of demand growth will therefore matter as much as the headline volume increase, particularly where longer-haul trades generate additional tonne-mile demand.
The central question for 2027 is whether tonne-mile growth, slippage and higher recycling can absorb a materially larger delivery programme. On the surface, scheduled fleet additions are running ahead of expected cargo growth, pointing to a less comfortable supply-demand balance. At the same time, the ageing fleet and the possibility of stronger demolition mean that the headline orderbook may overstate the true increase in effective capacity. The dry bulk market is therefore approaching a period in which fleet replacement, vessel utilisation and trade distances will be just as important as absolute delivery numbers in determining market balance.
Data source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.