WEEKLY DRY MARKET MONITOR
Spot Rates | Supply-Demand Trends | Port Congestion Overview
Week 36, 2025 | Date: Sept 03, 2025
This week we take a closer look at the shifting grain flows of 2025, as U.S.–China trade tensions continue to dominate global perspectives. Agriculture remains at the core of these frictions, with China’s move away from U.S. soybeans becoming increasingly evident and Brazil solidifying its role as the leading supplier.
As highlighted in our July Commodity Radar report, this shift aligns with China’s strategic goal of reducing reliance on the U.S. for agricultural imports. Since 2022, the U.S. has lost a significant share of China’s soybean purchases, while Brazil and increasingly Argentina have stepped in to fill the gap. Latest TSOP data show that U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed to just 783,000 tonnes in Q2 2025, down 85% from the previous quarter and 67% lower year-over-year. This effectively represents a nearcessation of flows, underscoring the severity of the structural decoupling.
Recent reports suggest Chinese processors could import up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina during the 2025/26 marketing year, which would mark a record. When looking at the grain flows, we can view that on Brazil–China soybeans flows are maintaining strong seasonal flows, while Argentina is also emerging as a complementary supplier.
Meanwhile, the U.S. soybean sector faces structural challenges in regaining lost market share in China, despite strong domestic demand. However, a new development is emerging Japan has deepened its partnership with U.S. corn exporters. Following the July 2025 trade agreement in which Japan committed to purchase approximately $8 billion in U.S. agricultural goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizer, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel, Japan is now positioning itself to broaden its import strategy, with policymakers considering expanded usage not only in feed but also for renewable energy and broader agri‑industrial applications.
C3 and C5 routes are showing signs of a downward revision, with current rates at $24/ton for Brazil–China and $10.4/ton for Australia–China. Oversupply in the South Atlantic is evident during the summer, with the excess consistently above 200, reaching around 255 since mid-August. Similarly, the C5 route has seen a decrease in ballasters heading to West Australia, now around 160, though this is still almost 20 more than the early August low.
Panamax - ECSA / Far East | USG / China Weaker
As September begins, spot rates for Panamax vessels carrying cargo from East Coast South America (ECSA) and the US Gulf (USG) to the Far East have declined. However, the monthly trend for these routes remains positive, showing increases of 7% and 4% respectively. This positive sentiment in the freight market is likely due to a decrease in ballast vessels heading to ECSA, with numbers dropping below 220 at the start of the month compared to around 270 in mid-August, alongside a consistent daily loading volume from ECSA.
Supramax spot rates saw increases in several routes. From the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East, rates reached $36/tonne, a 13% increase from the prior week. The US Gulf (USG) to Far East route also saw gains, reaching $44/tonne, up 3%. This continued strength since July is linked to a consistent decline in supramax vessel supply to the USG/USEC, with counts now below 80, compared to over 100 in early June.
Capesize ballasters view: The South Atlantic saw a significant 38% increase, while the North Atlantic experienced a more modest 8% rise. Conversely, the Pacific region demonstrated better absorption of ballasters, with a 7% decrease in the Far East/NOPAC region. Australasia, however, observed a 4% upward trend.
Panamax ballasters view: Significant increases in the number of ballasters are observed in both the Pacific (Australasia, +23%) and the North Atlantic (+30%).
Supramax ballasters view: Oversupply in the Pacific basin intensified, with the number of ballasters increasing significantly by 30% in Australasia and 18% in the Indian Ocean/South Africa region. The Atlantic experienced a more moderate rise, with an 8% increase in the South and a 10% increase in the North.
Handysize ballasters: Increases have been substantial in the Pacific region, with the Far East/NOPAC seeing a 28% rise and Australasia a 15% rise. Conversely, the North Atlantic experienced a 20% increase in vessel oversupply, while the South Atlantic noted a slowdown in ballasters.
Amid signs of a strong first half in Capesize tonne-day growth for bauxite shipments from Africa to the Far East, the summer season has shown a clear slowdown, with tonne-day levels recently dropping to their lowest point of the year. Earlier projections of a deceleration from the rapid expansion seen in the first quarter toward the third quarter now seem confirmed. However, current growth remains about 40% higher than the levels recorded in early September.
This week’s focus is on the rising port congestion in Tianjin, where the number of vessels waiting has surpassed 120, with the Supramax segment accounting for more than half of this activity. Estimated port days have also spiked to nearly 13, compared with the low of 8 recorded at the end of June. From a seasonal perspective, congestion at Tianjin has now reached its highest level not only this year but also relative to previous years. The key question in the coming days is whether this acceleration will be sustained, as prolonged congestion could provide additional support to the Baltic Supramax Index.
Data Source: Signal Ocean Platform