Typically speaking, steel has been one of the major provider of freight employment within the minor bulk cargoes category, To illustrate, looking at the tonmiles breakdown of geared shipments, from Handysizes to Ultramaxes, in the first eight months of this year, the top three categories are: Grain (excl Soybeans) (~10-20%), Fertilizers (~12-15%) and Steel (~11-14%).
From 2015 to 2020, global seaborne steel shipments had been on a gentle downward trend. However, this trend decisively changed from 2021 onwards, hitting a fresh peak last year. According to AXSMarine data, global seaborne steel volume, predominately carried by geared bulkers, reached 170 mln mt in FY2024, a y-o-y increase of 14.2%. Continuing this momentum, in the first eight months of 2025, this figure, rise by another 10% y-o-y, reaching120 mln mt by end August.
Meanwhile, over the past decade, Handysize (25-40K Dwt) and Supramax (50-60K Dwt) ranked first and second respectively in the average share of steel carried by small-sized bulk carriers, accounting for 41.6% and 36.8%. Handysize has maintained a relatively stable market share and consistently remained in the top position. In contrast, the share of Supramax declined from 46.3% in 2015 to 34.6% in 2024. It is worth noting that the share of Ultramax increased gradually from 5.7% in 2015 to 21% in 2025. This development coincided with the ramp up in Ultramax deliveries in recent years and in terms of vessel numbers, its fleet has grown by 20% over the past decade
On a side note, regarding fleet age profile, the average age of geared bulkers is approximately 12.3 years. By vessel type, the youngest is the Ultramax, with an average age of just 6.71 years, while the oldest is the Supramax, averaging 15.2 years. As of end August 2025, the Baltic Exchange has ceased publishing second-hand transaction data for the Supramax segment basis 58K Dwt, and its orderbook remains low, with only 20 vessels currently on order.
Steel Export and Import Distribution
From a bird-eye perspective, the top five loading regions collectively account for 79% (concentrated) of the global seaborne steel export volume in the first eight months of 2025, while the top five discharge regions represented just 51% of the total (fragmented), painting a different picture of its seaborne trade flows compared to other major dry bulk commodities. This also highlights the vast repositioning opportunities for geared tonnage carrying stems with China-Japan range.
Analysis by Exporting Countries
As the world's largest crude steel producer, China continues to lead in seaborne steel exports. As domestic demand cool, the steel behemoth exported via sea routes 68.21 mln mt in 2024, accounting for 26.3% of the global total, of which 53.99 mln mt is loaded on geared bulkers. So far this year, Chinese geared steel exports have further increased to 41.37 mln mt, raising its share to 33.5%. The main destinations for Chinese steel are Southeast Asia, the Arabian Gulf, and the west coast of South America, which together account for 47% of China’s total steel exports.
In the post-pandemic era, many governments are promoting economic recovery through increased infrastructure investment, with strong trade activity in Asia further driving steel demand. According to the joint report. Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024–2034 by Bain & Company and DBS Bank of Singapore, the six major economies of Southeast Asia are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.1% over the next decade, demonstrating strong resilience and potential. Despite global economic uncertainties, Southeast Asia. Benefiting from its geographic location, natural resources, and improving infrastructure is poised to become a new global growth pole.
According to industrial report steel demand in Southeast Asia grow by approximately 6% in 2024, with an expected growth rate of 4% in 2025. Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia will be the main drivers of regional steel demand growth, supported by industrialization and manufacturing expansion. Among China’s steel export destinations in 2024, Vietnam ranked first with 6.32 mln mt, while the Philippines and Indonesia ranked fifth and sixth with 2.24 million and 2.20 mln mt, respectively.
In 2024, China’s geared steel exports to the Middle East also saw significant growth, accounting for about 14% of its total exports. With ongoing urban development and infrastructure demands in the Arab region, the steel market there still holds considerable growth potential. The UAE stands out as a highlight, with China’s seaborne steel exports to the country reaching 4.12 mln mt in 2024, a 37.4% increase compared to 2023. Driven by its economic diversification strategy, the UAE is experiencing rapid development in construction, manufacturing, and energy sectors, which continues to boost steel demand.
In terms of geared steel shipments, South Korea is next in line. Korean steel exports on geared bulkers totaled 15.61 mln mt in 2024, accounting for 9.2% of the global volumes. So far in 2025, Korean·geared steel exports reached 12.25 mln mt, raising its share to 9.8%, with the port of Kwangyang accounting for 52.3%. As a long-term stable supplier of steel to the US, South Korea has exported an average of 2.18 mln mt annually over the past five years. However, the recent announcement of adding tariff by the Trump administration is expected to dampen US import demand, creating significant trade uncertainty.
Russia, the third-largest steel geared exporter, shipped 12.77 mln mt of steel by sea in 2024. So far in 2025, Russian geared steel exports have reached 10.21 mln mt, increasing its share to 8.1% of global volumes. Breaking it down by geography, the port of St. Petersburg on the Atlantic coast was the top port for geared bulker exports in Russia accounting for 45.4%（5.81 mln mt）of the country’s total geared bulker export volume in 2024. Year-to-date, its share has increased to 52% (5.30 mln mt). Its seaborne steel exports to Turkey amounted to 2.58 mln mt, and the export volume in 2025 has already surpassed that of the entire year of 2024. It is expected that 2025 will likely set a new five-year high. On the Far East side, Vladivostok emerged as the leading port for geared bulker steel exports in 2024, representing 9.45% (1.20 mln mt) of Russia’s total geared bulker steel shipments.
Overall, we forecast that FY2025 will eventually experience a modest increase of 1.0% in global steel production, largely attributable to slowing output in China. Recently, despite government intervention, indicators on Chinese real estate have slipped. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, commercial housing sales in the first seven months of this year decreased by 21.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, India, as the world's second-largest crude steel producer, is expected to maintain robust growth. According to the World Steel Association, India's crude steel production is expected to reach 1.62 mln mt in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.4%. However, downside risks persist due to deteriorating global industrial and economic conditions, coupled with the newly imposed 50% US tariff on steel imports.