The dry bulk market entered a more cautious phase in early September last year, with the BDI range-bound, balancing at 1,890 points after failing to sustain momentum above the 2,000 threshold. While the index remained well above levels seen in early September 2023, gains were uneven across segments. The Capesize segment provided most of the uplift, supported by Handysizes, whereas the mid-size vessels underperformed, with Panamaxes – key carriers of grains – slipping nearly 20 percent since late July. On the grain side, China’s soybean imports peaked in August, with customs recording 12.14 million tonnes, dominated by Brazilian supply. September inflows were expected to ease substantially. Brazilian soybean exports in August dropped sharply from July, while corn shipments were down 35 percent year-on-year. In the iron ore trade, China imported 101.39 million tonnes in August 2024, down both month-on-month and year-on-year, although cumulative imports over the first eight months rose 5.2 percent to 814.95 million tonnes. Domestic crude iron production softened sharply in July, prompting greater reliance on seaborne material and supporting Capesize demand. Brazilian exports reached 253 million tonnes by end-August, up 6.2 percent year-on-year.
One year on, the picture looks quite different. The Baltic indices have been balancing at healthier levels, with Capesizes the only segment lagging behind last September’s performance. Panamaxes, by contrast, have staged a notable recovery, supported by stronger grain flows and steadier employment out of South America. China’s soybean imports, while off their seasonal peaks, remain historically high, and Brazil’s corn exports, despite weekly fluctuations, are providing additional employment opportunities that were largely absent last year. This broader base of support has helped narrow the gap with the larger Capes and lent the market a more balanced tone. Indicatively, the Baltic Panamax Index has been on an upward trend since early September, closing most recently at $18,056 daily, up 43.1 percent year-on-year. Supramaxes and Handysizes have also strengthened, reporting weekly closes of $18,856 and $14,475 daily, up 18.2 and 13.5 percent respectively from last year. Together, these gains reflect a healthier distribution of demand across segments, in contrast to the uneven environment of 2024.
In the iron ore and steel complex, China imported 801.62 million tonnes of iron ore in the first eight months of 2025, a decline of 1.6 percent compared with the same period last year. The pace of contraction eased from the 2.3 percent drop recorded in January–July, as August arrivals improved both month-on-month and year-on-year, totaling 105.23 million tonnes, up 0.6 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. This points to a degree of stability returning after a subdued first half. In contrast, Chinese steel producers continued to expand their presence abroad, with exports reaching 77.49 million tonnes between January and August, a 10 percent increase year-on-year. August shipments stood at 9.51 million tonnes, easing slightly from July levels, yet remaining historically elevated. That these volumes have persisted despite the imposition of fresh anti-dumping measures in key markets such as Vietnam and South Korea highlights both the competitiveness of Chinese steel and Beijing’s determination to maintain export channels as a release valve for domestic oversupply.
Coal flows have shown the opposite trajectory. China imported 42.74 million tonnes of coal and lignite in August, down 6.8 percent year-on-year. Over January–August 2025, total imports fell sharply by 12.2 percent to 299.94 million tonnes, highlighting the country’s growing reliance on domestic coal production. Still, August volumes marked an eight-month high, as surging domestic prices widened the arbitrage window in favor of foreign coal. Beijing’s curbs on local coal output since July pushed domestic production to the lowest level in over a year, driving a sharp price rebound. Prices have since eased in September with cooler weather, but the episode demonstrated how swiftly Chinese policy interventions can ripple through the seaborne market.
Soybeans remain central to the grain story. China, the world’s largest importer, purchased 12.28 million tonnes in August 2025 – the highest volume ever recorded for the month – shoring up domestic supplies ahead of the US harvest. Most of the cargoes came from Brazil, leaving Chinese crushers well-prepared for a winter potentially constrained by trade frictions. Brazilian exporters have responded to the strong demand: ANEC lifted its forecast for September soybean exports to 7.43 million tonnes, also a record for the month. Cumulative exports for the first nine months are projected at 95.53 million tonnes, up 7.3 percent year-on-year. Corn shipments are also tracking firmly: ANEC projects between 6.20 million and 7.73 million tonnes for September, compared with 6.56 million tonnes a year earlier. These flows are critical for Panamax employment, helping to explain the segment’s resilience relative to last year’s downturn.
The contrast between 2024 and 2025 highlights the growing influence of broader market forces. Last year, fluctuating commodity prices largely dictated freight rates and vessel utilization. This year, while price volatility remains relevant, other factors – including geopolitics, trade policy, and energy diplomacy – have taken on greater significance. China’s careful balancing of domestic demand and export competitiveness is reshaping trade patterns, while Brazil’s record grain shipments underline South America’s crucial role in global food security. Shifts in Chinese coal imports further reflect Beijing’s tactical use of supply-side measures to manage energy markets. Looking ahead to the final quarter, Panamaxes have regained momentum, supported by steady grain flows, with Supramaxes and Handysizes also trading at healthier levels. Capesizes continue to perform, though they are not shining as brightly as in previous periods. Overall, the dry bulk market is on firmer footing, underpinned by balanced cargo support and diversified demand drivers.
Data source: Doric