In the first seven months of 2025, dry bulker ordering activity has experienced an unusually deep slump compared to the last few years.
New orders for dry bulk carriers plummeted by 63% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, totalling only 15.46 million Dwt. This sharp decline stands in stark contrast to the historic peak in 2024, when annual orders hit 63.91 million Dwt—the highest level in the past decade.
The slump can be partly attributed to prices remaining persistently high while many dry bulker markets have languished at relatively low levels. Notably, the China Newbuilding Dry Bulk Price Index (CNDPI – an index system assessed by a professional committee consisting of 21 domestic and foreign shipbrokers) averaged its highest level since records began in 2011 during the first seven months of 2025. However, it should be noted that price movements typically lag behind order volumes. Indeed, prices are now starting to weaken and accordingly The CNDPI currently stands 3.3% below its peak of 1,167 points recorded in September–October 2024. With shipbuilding activity reaching its highest level, there remains room for further downward adjustment. By deadweight tonnage, Capesize orders totaled 8.85 million DWT (57% of the total), followed by Supramax at 4.90 million DWT (31%), driven by strong performance in the Capesize and Supramax chartering markets. In contrast, Panamax and Handysize orders combined amounted to just 417,000 DWT (3%).
In terms of vessel count, a total of 165 orders were placed in the first seven months of 2025, with Supramax accounting for 55%, Capesize for 23%, and combined Panamax and Handysize to 11%. Whether measured in deadweight or vessel count, this year’s order volume is likely to be the lowest in the past decade, compared to the ten-year average of 485 vessels.
China remains the top source of orders among the top five ordering nations (with fifth and sixth place tied). However, overall orders from Chinese owners fell by 48.6% compared to the same period last year. Rather than reflecting the recent USTR proposals, this decline more reflects the exceptional number of orders placed by Chinese owners last year. However, China’s Capesize orders actually grew by 36.4% year-on-year as 30 units were contracted. This reflects the "National Cargo, National Fleet" strategy initiated last year by COSCO - the country’s largest shipping conglomerate - which is accelerating an ambitious 100-vessel construction plan. For example, in July the group placed orders for 10 Capesizes split between Qingdao Beihai Shipyard and COSCO Shipping Zhoushan Shipyard scheduled for delivery between 4Q27 and 4Q28. Additionally, Shandong Shipping ordered 10 methanol dual-fuel 320,000 Dwt vessels at Qingdao Beihai Shipyard in June.
Meanwhile, in terms of vessel numbers, Panamax and Supramax orders slumped by 89% and 65%, respectively. Another key observation is the stark decline in orders made by Greek owners – a key market bellwether. This share dropped from second place last year to fifth this year, with only one Kamsarmax and two Handymax orders placed. Both China and Greece saw significant contractions in Panamax and Supramax orders globally.
One reason behind this trend is existing dry bulker fleet which is teetering on the edge of oversupply. Notably, the Panamax and Supramax orderbooks already account for 22% and 25% of the existing fleet, respectively—the highest among all dry bulker segments. Additionally, the average age of the active Panamax fleet is 13.5 years, while Supramaxes average 11.8 years, meaning they still have considerable service life remaining. Coupled with high orderbook levels, this has further dampened owners’ appetite for new orders.
Drivers Behind the Order Slump in dry bulker newbuilding orders:
1. High Newbuilding Prices (Relative to Vessel Earnings)
Newbuilding prices surged across the board in 2024, with Capesize prices rising by 11.4% and even Handysize inching up by 4%. This spike was driven by two main factors:
Strong chartering market demand: The comparable firm shipping market and high freight rates pushed up asset values and newbuilding costs.
Structural yard capacity constraints: The surge in tanker and container orders in 2024 occupied significant yard slots. Since dry bulk carriers offer lower margins, they were deprioritized under the "high-value vessel first" yard allocation strategy which saw yards prioritise the building of higher value added ships such as natural gas carriers. Therefore bulker owners were forced to pay higher prices if they wanted to obtain a slot.
2. Regulatory and Technological Uncertainty
Although the IMO clarified its decarbonisation roadmap and the policies which will be employed, the industry’s green transition faces major hurdles, particularly the lack of consensus on alternative fuels. While some leading owners have reserved dual-fuel conversion space in newbuilding, the slow rollout of dual-fuel engines and high green fuel costs have hindered progress. These uncertainties have made owners cautious, leading many to delay ordering while awaiting policy and technological clarity.
3. Geopolitical and Trade Policy Shocks
The US government’s proposal to impose additional port fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-owned vessels appears to have disproportionately impacted Supramax, Panamax, Ultramax and Kamsarmax, markets which account for the majority of dry bulker calls at US ports. Although these USTR fees only remain proposals, they have potentially prompted some owners to hold off on orders at Chinese yards where constructing a dry bulker can be on average 15% cheaper than constructing the same ship at a Japanese yard. Furthermore, these proposals have led Chinese lessors which are an increasingly important source of maritime finance to pivot toward "safe assets" such as LNG carriers or explore RMB-denominated closed-loop transaction systems to circumvent sanctions.
With these overlapping challenges, it appears that dry bulker owners are adopting a wait-and-see approach. As the saying goes, "Measure twice, cut once." Despite many dry bulk owners sitting on cash reserves, most prefer to wait for clearer market and policy signals rather than rush into orders. Although newbuilding prices are expected to continue their decline, the drop may be gradual. Nonetheless, the sharp order contraction in 2025 reflects a market correction, whereby geopolitical tensions, tightening environmental regulations, and energy transition dynamics are once again reshaping present ship ordering behaviour which will form the foundation for fleet fundamentals in 2-3 years’ time.