The past few weeks in the dry bulk market have highlighted a familiar truth: top-down rally spillovers are welcome but cannot be relied upon as the foundation of sustained strength. Mid-July saw a notable surge in the Panamax sector, led by a transatlantic rally on the P1A route amid tightening tonnage. Speculation around USTR policy potential fees Chinese-linked vessels (as noted in BRS Dry Bulk Weekly Newsletter Issue 176), sparked pre-emptive risk repositioning, with strong gains from Panamaxes spreading to the S4A coal (USG to Skaw-Passero) and S1C corn runs (USG to Far East). S4A and S1C peaked at $29,193 and $28,379 respectively in mid-July, representing over 40+% surge within 2 weeks for both US originating routes. The weakened coal stem split between Capesizes and Panamaxes further supported the repositioning of smaller bulkers, allowing them to temporarily capitalize on the disruption. But as Panamax rates corrected, the smaller segments saw momentum quickly evaporate. As Warren Buffett said: “When the tide goes out, you see who’s been swimming naked.” While spillover rallies offer pleasant surprises, it’s the recurring, reliable cargoes that ultimately define a segment’s resilience.
Cargoes including petroleum coke (petcoke), cement, and clinker—which remain mostly exclusive to the Supramax, Ultramax, and Handysize segments—have continued to offer steady support to geared tonnage. Their importance has only grown amid the evolving macro landscape, geopolitical risks, and structural shifts in global infrastructure and manufacturing.
Petcoke: Sticky Flows, Strong Fundamentals. A by-product of oil refining, petroleum coke (petcoke) has accounted for 3.0% of global geared bulker (25k–65k dwt) ton-miles so far in 2025, compared to 9.2% from steel cargoes. Chinese steel exports maintained strong momentum in 1H25, weathering anti-dumping measures, but Beijing's intensified capacity controls implemented in July now raises a big question mark in regards to this export resiliency. Petcoke alongside clinker’s 4.6% and cement’s 2.4%, offer healthy cargo diversification. While petcoke is modest amongst the global share, it represents 19.0% of tonmile for US exports on geared bulkers, second only to corn at 21.6% ,so far in 2025. Globally, petcoke provides 10–20% of the energy in cement kilns, but in markets like India, this rises to 30–40%. While historically shunned for its carbon intensity, the Russia-Ukraine war has reshuffled the global fuel hierarchy, triggering a 22.3% y-o-y rebound in 2022’s global petcoke exports. Since then, US (the world’s top exporter) has moved steadily toward its 2018 export peak of 36.6 mln mt, reaching 36.2 mln mt in 2024. Recent oil price weakness further supports petcoke’s price competitiveness. Global exports hit 65.6 mln mt in 2024, up 9.0% y-o-y, with 1H25 showing a further 2.8% y-o-y increase. On the supply side, Middle Eastern production has grown significantly. Kuwait’s 615 kb/d Al Zour refinery, and Oman’s 230 kb/d Duqm plant, have both more than doubled their petcoke exports since 2018—reaching 1.5 mln and 1.3 mln mt, respectively, in 2024.
Demand has shifted away from traditional buyers such as Japan, Mexico, and Türkiye, which have scaled back due to emissions regulations, refinery upgrades, and increased competition from discounted Russian coal, respectively. India, China, and Brazil now lead global imports. India alone imported 7.2 mln mt in 2024, with 2.8 mln mt sourced from the US. China, meanwhile, brought in 5.0 mln mt in 1H25. Trade tensions are also reshaping flows. In 1Q25, US petcoke exports to China surged 30.7% as importers front-loaded shipments ahead of Beijing’s 37% tariff on US petcoke. This was followed by a sharp 38.6% y-o-y drop in 2Q25, with further declines expected as Chinese buyers turn to domestic supplies and non-US sources. Indian demand is also subject to trade-friction volatility with new US tariff threats tied to India’s continued imports of Russian energy. New Delhi’s response could drastically influence the trajectory of US–India petcoke trade.
Despite ongoing trade-related demand concerns, not all petcoke use is dependent on cost-economics and be substituted with coal. Calcined petcoke remains essential for anode production in the aluminium and silicon industries—both experiencing structural demand growth driven by electric vehicles, solar manufacturing, and lightweighting trends in transport. While not all refineries are equipped coker units to produce petcoke, the IEA projects global crude throughput to increase by 300 kb/d in 2026, which should support overall petcoke supply.
Cement & Clinker: Infrastructure-Driven Demand. Cement and clinkers (key component in cement production) are the silent workhorses of the global development. In 2024, the US imported 16.2 mln mt of cement, cementing its position as the top global buyer. Worldwide, imports totaled 57.3 mln mt, supported by a surge in public infrastructure spending—from data centres in the US to renewable power installations in China and road construction across developing nations. Türkiye, the world’s largest cement exporter, shipped 10.6 mln mt in 2024 and is on track to exceed that in 2025, with 5.4 mln mt already shipped so far this year — generating 61 bln ton-miles, roughly equal to Indonesia’s total coal exports to the Philippines and Vietnam so far in 2025. Low prices for fuels like petroleum coke and coal amidst strong demand, contributed to firm cement and clinker output, with a weak Turkish lira encouraging exports. Türkiye’s clinker export also surged 63.2% in 1H25 at 3.1 mln mt on bulk carriers, a 63.2% y-o-y surge. Cement production capacity in Turkey is expected to rise further with new production investments.
Vietnam, the top clinker exporter, is also rebounding after Hanoi cut clinker export tax from 10% to 5% in May. H1 clinker output rose 6.5% y-o-y at Vicem, the country’s leading producer, and Vietnam’s exports climbed to 11.6 mln mt, up 12.6% y-o-y. US imports of Vietnamese clinker and cement alone generated 69 bn ton-miles in 2024—matching the combined ton-mile impact of India’s 4.7 mln mt of steel exports in 2024.
Demand tailwinds are growing led by the construction of energy transition-linked infrastructure (e.g., wind, solar, grid capacity) and reshoring trends in Europe and the US. Although Supplementary Cementitious Materials (SCMs)—like fly ash and slag—will contribute to decarbonisation, they are more likely to supplement, rather than replace, cement volumes in the medium term.
Geared Bulker Secondary Market Signals. Petcoke shipped to India and China continues to be a structurally important commodity in the cargo mix for smaller bulkers, with few substitution risks from larger vessel segments. Likewise, cement and clinker and other minor bulk cargoes are unlikely to shift to larger units due to draft, port, and volume constraints, giving smaller ships defensible demand exposure.
This structural resilience is being recognised in the secondhand market.
Since end-June, according to Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments:
· Ultramax values have declined by 2.6%
· Handysize values have increased by 1.3%
· The Ultramax–Handysize spread has narrowed to $4.38 mln, down from $6.76 mln a year ago
The Cargoes That Keep on Giving. As broader macro sentiment improves following some signs of easing US trade policy uncertainty, and infrastructure investment gathers pace globally, petcoke, cement, and clinker offers limited tail-end risk and low risk of being poached by larger segments — the case for sustained employment and healthy asset pricing. In an increasingly unpredictable dry bulk market, these industrial cargoes continue to provide the ballast that keeps earnings—and fleets—on an even keel.