Allied Quantumsea’s latest research reviews how China’s shifting commodity demand, from coal to bauxite and high-grade iron ore, is elevating Africa’s role in dry bulk trade, with Guinea and South Africa at the center of the supply chain realignment.
The first half of 2025 saw significant shifts in dry bulk commodity flows, particularly in the mineral trade segment. Guinea cemented its position as the world’s top bauxite exporter, with volumes rising 36% year-on-year to nearly 100 million tonnes driven largely by Chinese demand. This surge coincides with the expected start-up of the Simandou iron ore project, predominantly backed by Chinese firms, further deepening Guinea’s export dependence on Beijing as Western influence in the country remains limited. As a result, industrial minerals such as bauxite, iron ore, and manganese are capturing a larger share of dry bulk cargoes, gradually displacing coal as the dominant volume driver.
Simandou’s Rise: Who Loses Out as China Shifts to High-Grade Iron Ore?
While Simandou’s high-grade iron ore could theoretically serve global markets, nearly all of it is expected to flow to China. The project will deliver ore with a 65% iron content, superior to much of what is produced in Western Australia, aligning with China’s push to decarbonize its steel sector, which accounts for 8% of global emissions. As demand for higher-grade ore grows, a key question emerges: Who will lose market share in China once Simandou comes online?
Some supply contraction may occur naturally, as aging Australian and Brazilian mines retire without being replaced. However, highcost, lower-grade producers are most at risk, potentially speeding up closures due to shrinking margins. Western Australian miners, in particular, face challenges from stagnant Chinese steel demand, the shift toward premium ore, and rising Guinean supply, all of which put downward pressure on prices.
What’s Changing Fast in Global Coal Trade?
Despite declining imports and rising renewables, China’s domestic coal production increased by around 6% in January–May 2025, exceeding 1.9 billion tonnes, driven by continued government support aimed at ensuring energy security. This combination of weaker import demand, expanding renewable output, and sustained domestic mining is gradually shifting the dynamics of global coal trade and could lead to softer Panamax vessel utilization in the months ahead.
China’s Coal Imports from Indonesia Lose Momentum
China’s coal imports fell by approximately 11% year-on-year to 222 million metric tonnes in January–June 2025, with June imports plunging to a two-year low of just 33 million tonnes, according to Chinese customs data, as strong domestic output and energy security policies curbed reliance on seaborne coal.
Indonesia, China’s largest coal supplier, saw its shipments fall by 30% year-on-year in June to an estimated 11.6 million metric tonnes, outpacing the overall drop in total coal imports. For the first six months of 2025, China imported 91 million metric tonnes of Indonesian coal, down 12% from the same period in 2024. The shift reflects China's preference for coal with higher energy content to improve combustion efficiency and reduce import volumes per unit of energy. Meanwhile, imports from Australia continued to decline despite a slight month-on-month uptick in May. Total volumes reached 37 million metric tonnes in the first half of 2025, around 1% lower year-on-year with June imports dropping 24% versus the same month in 2024.
South Africa Boosts Coal and Manganese Exports; West Africa Drives Global Bauxite Growth
Indonesia remained the dominant thermal coal exporter in January– May 2025, shipping approximately 187 million tonnes despite a 12% year-on-year decline. The drop reflects reduced imports from key buyers such as India and China, which have shifted toward higher-grade coal from suppliers like Russia, South Africa, and Australia. While South Africa’s overall volumes were considerably lower, its exports gained momentum amid this shift. The Richards Bay Coal Terminal exported 52.08 million tonnes in 2024, marking a 10% year-on-year increase, supported by rail improvements and steady demand from Asia.
South Africa continues to hold a leading position in global manganese ore exports, serving primarily the steelmaking industry. In 2024, it exported manganese ore valued at ZAR 56.6 billion, underscoring its strategic role in the global market. Meanwhile, in the bauxite trade, West Africa remains a key supplier led by Guinea, which exported 99.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, marking a 36% year-on-year increase. Driven by strong Chinese demand, Guinea is on track to reach approximately 199 million tonnes by year-end.
Guinea’s Bauxite Strength Faces Operational Headwinds
Recent developments raise caution for Guinea’s bauxite outlook in the upcoming quarters. The military has suspended operations at several mining sites amid a regulatory crackdown, creating uncertainty for foreign operators. Additionally, with the wet season now underway, from May to October, peaking in July and August when rainfall in regions like Boké and Sangaredi averages 400–500 mm per month, inland transport and loading operations may face disruptions. Nevertheless, Guinea exported a record number of shipments, as mentioned before, in the first half of this year, but the operational and seasonal factors could curtail growth in the second half and impact bauxite supply to Chinese buyers.
Data Source: Allied