After setting an all-time high for coal imports in 2024, China appears to be entering a new phase of recalibration. Preliminary data for 2025 points to a significant deceleration in seaborne coal arrivals, underpinned by a mix of domestic overcapacity, evolving energy policy, and structural shifts in demand.
Through the first five months of 2025, Chinese coal imports have declined around 8% year-on-year. Based on our estimations, the full-year drop could range between 50 and 100 million metric tons — a fall of up to 18% from 2024’s record 542.7 million tons. This retreat is noteworthy given the seasonal context: early summer is typically a time of inventory accumulation in anticipation of peak cooling demand. Instead, imports are being curbed as China leans more heavily on local supply and diversified energy sources.
Several key drivers explain this reversal. First, domestic coal output has surged, with production in the first four months of 2025 up 6.6% year-on-year. Expectations for an additional 70–80 million tons in output this year will only widen the cushion against the need for foreign coal. At the same time, coal-fired power generation has shown signs of stagnation. Power generation from thermal sources was down 4% between January and April, even as total electricity demand grew — growth that was instead absorbed by renewables.
China’s push for energy diversification is showing measurable results. In April, the share of wind and solar in power generation reached a record 26%, with coal’s contribution falling below 55% notable down from the 80% dominance of just a decade ago. With this backdrop, the role of imported coal is becoming increasingly marginal, particularly when domestic stockpiles are ample and government policy favors inward-looking supply chains.
There is also a pronounced shift in the nature of imports. While total volumes are falling, buyers are showing increased interest in higher-calorific value coals — particularly from Australia and Russia with China strategically pivoting toward denser energy imports. In contrast, Indonesian coal, which typically offers lower energy content, has seen a drop in shipments. Chinese imports of Indonesian coal fell more than 12% year-on-year in the first five months, while deliveries from Australia have edged up in response to their improved price-to-energy yield.
Adding to this complexity, the country has also quietly begun exporting more coal. Though volumes remain modest, outbound shipments rose by 13% year-on-year through May — a signal of oversupply and a broader rebalancing effort by producers. Countries like Japan and South Korea, have emerged as unexpected buyers of Chinese coal.
Looking ahead, while the summer heat may offer a short-term lift to thermal demand, the longer-term trajectory points toward continued moderation in import reliance. With global coal prices still soft and domestic supply robust, China’s seaborne coal imports may continue to recede — not due to a single policy decision, but as the cumulative outcome of evolving energy economics, competitive domestic pricing, and an accelerating green transition.
Data Source: Intermodal