China's Coal Import Prospects For This Year Remain Bleak

By Jeffrey Landsberg

As we discussed for clients in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly China Report, domestic coal production totaled 389.3 million tons in April.  This is down month-on-month by 51.3 million tons (-12%), is up year-on-year by 17.6 million tons (5%), and marks an eleventh straight month where China's coal production has grown on a year-on-year basis. 

Coal-derived electricity generation totaled only 449.1 billion kilowatt hours.  This is down month-on-month by 60.8 billion kilowatt hours (-12%) and is down year-on-year by 8.8 billion kilowatt hours (-2%).  

Overall, it remains problematic for China's coal import demand prospects that coal-derived electricity generation has again fared worse than coal output.  This has now occurred for seven straight months (and during each of the last five months, coal-derived electricity generation has contracted on a year-on-year basis).  As we continue to discuss in Commodore Research's Weekly China Reports and Weekly Executive Reports, we remain bearish for China’s 2025 coal import prospects.