As we discussed for clients in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly China Report, domestic coal production totaled 389.3 million tons in April. This is down month-on-month by 51.3 million tons (-12%), is up year-on-year by 17.6 million tons (5%), and marks an eleventh straight month where China's coal production has grown on a year-on-year basis.
Coal-derived electricity generation totaled only 449.1 billion kilowatt hours. This is down month-on-month by 60.8 billion kilowatt hours (-12%) and is down year-on-year by 8.8 billion kilowatt hours (-2%).
Overall, it remains problematic for China's coal import demand prospects that coal-derived electricity generation has again fared worse than coal output. This has now occurred for seven straight months (and during each of the last five months, coal-derived electricity generation has contracted on a year-on-year basis). As we continue to discuss in Commodore Research's Weekly China Reports and Weekly Executive Reports, we remain bearish for China’s 2025 coal import prospects.