Whilst many global markets are still trying to quantify and reassess their footing in the wake of the trade war truce, the dry bulk sector has remained firmly anchored to the realities of spot market cargo flows. Setting aside a few scattered pitches of optimism, the Baltic indices remain largely indifferent to future-facing trends or geopolitical manoeuvres, instead reflecting where short-term supplydemand imbalances dictate the daily close should be. In the absence of a clear directional driver, most Baltic indices drifted sideways over the past week, with the Handysize standing out as the only segment posting daily gains across the last five trading sessions. The Capesize segment failed to extend the late-week momentum seen previously, while the Supramax market held to its mid-April range, showing no signs of meaningful deviation. Turning to the Panamax segment, April and May are traditionally vibrant months, with a surge of activity underpinned by peak grain exports out of East Coast South America. This period usually sees the Baltic P6_82 index galloping ahead, often pulling the broader market upward with it. However, at the current juncture, the barometer of activity in this key export region for the workhorses of the grain trade is showing only a tepid performance – a far cry from the seasonal exuberance typically expected.
China’s soybean imports from Brazil fell sharply by 22.2 percent yearon-year in April, hampered by harvest delays, logistical constraints, and extended customs clearance times. According to the General Administration of Customs, shipments from Brazil totalled 4.60 million tonnes last month. Imports from the United States – China’s second-largest supplier – also declined, falling 43.7 percent year-onyear to 1.38 million tonnes, as buyers had earlier pivoted to Brazilian supply amid tariff uncertainty. Total soybean imports for April amounted to just 6.08 million tonnes, marking the lowest April intake since 2015. From January to April, imports from Brazil dropped 42.5 percent year-on-year to 9.14 million tonnes, while arrivals from the U.S. rose 35.2 percent to 12.95 million tonnes. These figures corroborate the sluggish performance of the Panamax spot market during the first quarter, reflecting subdued cargo availability in a key grain corridor.
Nonetheless, Brazil’s April soybean exports rose 4 percent year-onyear to 15 million tonnes – marking the second-highest April volume on record – driven by a bumper harvest and sustained demand from China. For the 2023/24 season (Feb–Jan), Brazil’s total soybean exports declined to 97.0 million tonnes, down from 103.9 million tonnes in the previous season, as production setbacks constrained supply. Exports to China were particularly affected, with volumes during the final five months of the season (Sep 2024–Jan 2025) dropping by 37 percent year-on-year due to stock depletion. For the current 2024/25 season, LSEG Agriculture Research estimates Brazilian soybean production at 169.3 million tonnes – up by 22 million tonnes year-on-year. Based on this recovery and projected Chinese restocking demand, Brazil’s exports are forecast to reach 108.3 million tonnes. According to the ANEC, Brazil's soybean exports in May 2025 are expected to reach 14.27 million tonnes – a 13 percent increase from last week's forecast of 12.60 million tonnes, surpassing both April 2025’s volume of 13.48 million tonnes and the 13.47 million tonnes exported in May 2024. By May 10th, exports had reached 3.11 million tonnes, with an additional 3.99 million tonnes expected between May 11th and 17th.
Yet, despite the strong pace in grain exports, the Baltic P6 index has struggled to sustain meaningful upward momentum. A key factor weighing on sentiment has been the marked slowdown in China’s coal imports, which has increased the number of ballasters repositioning toward the Atlantic, thereby exerting downward pressure on regional freight rates. In April, China’s total coal arrivals fell 16 percent year-on-year, as domestic prices – now at four-year lows – undermined the appeal of seaborne cargoes. Imports from Indonesia, China’s top supplier, dropped 20 percent to 14.29 million tonnes amid pricing disputes related to Jakarta’s attempt to impose its domestic benchmark on international sales. Arrivals from Australia and Mongolia slipped by 3 percent each, while Russian volumes declined 13 percent to 7.40 million tonnes. By variety, thermal coal imports totalled 27.17 million tonnes in April – down 0.6 percent month-on-month and 17.5 percent year-on-year – as the narrowing of the import arbitrage eroded buying interest. Metallurgical coal arrivals also contracted, falling 13.4 percent year-on-year to 10.66 million tonnes. Conversely, domestic coal production remained resilient. Output reached 389.31 million tonnes in April, up 3.8 percent from a year earlier, albeit slightly below March’s record high. Cumulative production for the first four months of the year climbed to 1.58 billion tonnes, marking a 6.6 percent year-on-year increase
In essence, the dry bulk market is witnessing a bifurcation in commodity flows – strength in agricultural trade is being offset by weakness in coal, particularly in key demand centres like China. This divergence highlights the challenges in sustaining broader index gains even amid record or near-record volumes in certain segments. The market’s sideways movement reflects this tension, with short-term fundamentals continuing to outweigh longer-term sentiment.
Data source: Doric