This week, Allied Quantumsea Research reviews the dry bulk fleet composition for the first nine months of the year, analyzing growth trends across vessel size segments while considering the persistent age-related challenges that hinder shipping's transition to a greener future.
Active Fleet vs Orderbook & Scheduled Deliveries
As of the first nine months of 2025, the active dry bulk fleet totals 14,021 vessels, compared with nearly 13,000 vessels in July 2025, while the orderbook stands at 1,499 vessels, or 10.7% of the active fleet, up from 9% in July. The continuous rise in the active fleet reflects ongoing deliveries with minimal demolition activity, resulting in a steady expansion of available tonnage. This trend, alongside a slightly higher orderbook share, highlights a persistently growing fleet and raises concerns over a potential supply imbalance if contracting activity persists and demolition remains limited.
Small and medium-sized vessel categories: Supramax/Ultramax (4,312 units, including Handymax), Handysize (3,202), and Panamax/Kamsarmax (3,472), dominate the active bulk carrier fleet by vessel count, far surpassing the larger vessel segments: Capesize/VLOC (1,916) and Post Panamax (1,117). Additionally, the fleet includes 2,005 Small Bulk carriers, roughly 60% of which are over 10 years old.
Fleet Age Profile | Smaller Segments Continue to Bear the Weight
The age structure of the fleet remains uneven across segments. More than 130 million DWT (≈ 12 %) of the global total is above 20 years old, with ageing most pronounced for above 25yrs in the Small Bulk and Handysize sectors. The Handysize fleet includes 336 units over 25 years, while Supramax/Ultramax (232 units) and Panamax/Kamsarmax (234 units). By contrast, the Capesize/VLOC segment remains comparatively younger with 137 vessels exceeding 20 years of age.
Fleet Expansion | Global Bulk Fleet Up 23m DWT as Newbuilds Outpace Retirements
The first nine months of the year saw a net fleet growth of 315 vessels (+23.24m DWT), driven by 420 deliveries against 105 removals (including scrapping and other removals).
Fleet Growth Pattern Unchanged | Supramaxes Still Lead, Handysizes Overtake Kamsarmaxes
By the end of September 2025, the overall fleet growth trend remained consistent with the end-June pattern, as Supramax/ Ultramax vessels continued to lead global fleet expansion, but Handysizes emerging as the secondary growth engine through the third quarter.
The Supramax segment added 127 vessels over the first nine months, up from around 89 by mid-year. However, the Handysize segment gained momentum in Q3, expanding by 85 vessels, thereby surpassing the Kamsarmax fleet, which grew by 61 units over the same period. This shift highlights a stronger recovery in smaller geared bulkers, likely reflecting regional trade resilience and replacement of aging tonnage.
Capesize/VLOC additions remained moderate at 22 vessels, while Post-Panamax tonnage grew by 12 ships, and Small Bulkers continued to contract with a net loss of 9 vessels.
Demolition Activity | Persistent Weakness in Vessel Removals
Demolition activity remains critically low, underscoring shipowners’ reluctance to phase out ageing assets despite an increasingly mature fleet profile. Between January and June 2025, only 36 bulk carriers totaling about 2 million DWT were removed from service. By end-October, scrapping had reached just 55 vessels (3.3 million DWT), equivalent to a marginal 0.3% of the global fleet. Removals continued to concentrate in the smaller and mid-size segments, led by Handysize and Supramax/Ultramax units, which together accounted for over 60% of deletions. In contrast, the Capesize sector saw only four vessels removed (0.79 million DWT), highlighting sustained owner hesitation in retiring larger ships amid geopolitical freight and regulatory signals.
What’s Next | Ageing Fleet Meets Environmental Headwinds
As the dry-bulk market enters the final quarter of 2025, it continues to face an ageing fleet, limited demolition activity, and evolving environmental regulations. The IMO’s Extraordinary Session (MEPC ES.2), held in October 2025, confirmed the adoption timeline for the Net-Zero Framework (NZF), with entry into force scheduled for 2027. While this provides direction for long-term decarbonisation, the deferred implementation has extended uncertainty, prompting many owners to retain older vessels until clearer compliance and carbon-pricing mechanisms are in place.
The Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships (HKC), which entered into force in June 2025, has yet to produce a meaningful rise in demolition volumes. New certification requirements and freight market earnings of this year have kept scrapping activity subdued across most segments.
During the third quarter of 2025, robust iron-ore shipments from Brazil and Australia supported Capesize freight rates, strengthening owners’ decisions to delay recycling within the larger vessel classes. At the same time, Supramax and Panamax segments benefited from expanding Brazilian grain exports and renewed optimism from Argentina’s grain trade.
Although these trade-driven gains have supported freight market evolution in a positive trend, the underlying imbalance between an ageing fleet and weak demolition persists. Unless stronger policy signals and carbon-aligned incentives accelerate removals, older vessels will continue to crowd the market, delaying the fleet’s energy transition and sustaining medium-term oversupply risk.
Data Source: Allied