In the first three quarters of 2025, the Philippines imported around 55 mln mt of dry bulk cargo, reflecting a shift in composition rather than a fall in activity. Looking at the breakdown, coal imports are easing, while LNG and steel are expanding, and clinker remains steady. Coal imports are down 9% y-o-y, cement has slipped by 12%, clinker is softer by 6%, and iron ore has fallen 45%, yet these declines are offset by stronger LNG and steel inflows, up 45% and 18%, respectively, thereby keeping overall tonnage demand firm.
Macro Trigger – Infrastructure Demand Meets Energy Diversification
The ‘Build Better More’ programme, a ₱9 trillion (about $153 billion) plan covering 194 flagship projects, remains the backbone of Manila’s economic strategy. Expansions of rail, port, and road networks in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao continue to support demand for steel and clinker.
At the same time, 2025 marks a turning point in the Philippines’ energy mix. LNG imports began in mid-2023 following the launch of the country’s first regasification terminals, coinciding with the moratorium on new greenfield coal plants. The Philippine Energy Plan 2023–2050 now targets 35% renewables by 2030 and 50% by 2040, gradually shifting the balance between coal, gas, and renewables.
According to Ember, coal’s share in the Philippines’ power generation has eased from around 62% in mid-2024 to just above 57% by August 2025, reflecting a gradual recalibration of the energy mix as LNG and renewables scale up.
Steam coal imports are tracking near 26 mln mt for the first nine months of 2025, about 9% lower y-o-y, and could close the year around 35.4 mln mt compared with 37.17 mln mt in 2024. This drop indicates stabilisation rather than decline, with industrial consumption holding firm under the ongoing public infrastructure drive.
LNG inflows have surged by about 49% y-o-y to 21.5 mln bbl in the first nine months of 2025, according to AXSMarine data, reflecting rapid growth since imports began in mid-2023 following the start-up of the Luzon and Batangas regasification terminals. The expansion of LNG has slowed coal’s momentum but remains largely a supplement to baseload supply.
Across vessel segments, Panamaxes continue to dominate steam coal movements, accounting for roughly 65% of total imports over the first nine months of 2025 despite a 9.2% y-oy fall. Supramax arrivals slipped by 7.2%, while Handysize volumes rose by nearly 18%, pointing to broader parcel distribution and enhanced operational flexibility rather than a structural trade shift.
While the Philippines energy transition continues, construction momentum remains firm. As finished cement inflows ease, upstream feedstock demand has become the stronger driver of industrial cargo. Cement imports are around 1.85 mln mt in 2025, down 12% y-o-y, reflecting the ₱400/t safeguard duty imposed by the Department of Trade and Industry on imported Portland and blended cement. The measure has shielded domestic producers and encouraged renewed investment in local capacity.
Concreat Holdings Philippines has expanded output at its Antipolo Solid Cement Plant to 7.2 mln mt per year following its April 2025 upgrade, while Taiheiyo Cement Philippines added 3 mln mt through its new Cebu facility commissioned in mid-2024.
Most cement imports come from Vietnam, Japan, and Indonesia, carried mainly on Handysize vessels given their short-haul routes and parcel flexibility. The softening in cement inflows highlights the Philippines’ move toward greater self-sufficiency in production, even as construction activity and infrastructure spending remain firm under the government’s development drive.
Clinker, the key feedstock supporting the Philippines’ expanding cement capacity, remains a major import stream. The country continues to rank among Southeast Asia’s busiest clinker importers, with volumes around 5.8 mln mt in 2025, slightly below 2024’s peak as higher utilisation and earlier stock build-ups moderate fresh arrivals. The Taiheiyo facility in Cebu added about 3 mln mt of clinker production capacity, reducing import reliance but keeping demand firm.
The country’s construction sector is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2025, driven by large-scale rail, port, and energy developments. Vietnam remains the dominant exporter accounting for roughly two-thirds of inbound cargo, followed by Indonesia, Japan, and China. Handysizes haul about 65% of clinker discharges, mainly on short haul runs from Vietnam, while Supramaxes carry around 32%, covering longer-range parcels from Indonesia and Japan.
The government’s infrastructure drive continues to anchor steel demand, with imports of about 4.36 mln mt in 2025, up 9% y-o-y. Major infrastructure projects across Luzon and Mindanao, including the North–South Commuter Railway, the Metro Manila Subway, and port upgrades in Batangas, Davao, and Cagayan de Oro, are sustaining imports. Cargoes arrive mainly from China (1.45 mln mt), Japan (0.31 mln mt), and South Korea (0.25 mln mt), providing steady mid-haul employment for Handysizes and Supramaxes.
Handysizes handle about 69% of shipments, with Supramaxes covering 31%, reflecting their flexibility across short and mid-haul routes. While China remains the principal supplier, Japan and South Korea have expanded their share with stronger demand for project-grade materials. Despite ongoing efforts by the Board of Investments and the Department of Trade and Industry to promote local steel integration, domestic output still trails infrastructure needs. Import reliance therefore remains firm, keeping 50,000–68,000 Dwt tonnage well employed across regional routes.
Iron ore imports are estimated at 2.57 mln mt in 2025, down 31% y-o-y, as local mills increasingly pivot toward recycled scrap and imported steels. The decline reflects policy support for low-carbon steelmaking under the Philippine Iron and Steel Industry Roadmap 2030, which promotes the development of scrap-based electric arc furnace capacity. With this transition, Capesize arrivals from Brazil, which supply nearly all inbound ore, have eased, reducing average haul lengths by more than 40%. The structural shift signals weaker demand for raw ore but growing intra-Asia movements of processed steel, sustaining mid-size vessel utilisation even as long-haul employment softens.
Ballast Relief: Outbound Minerals Keep Rotations Efficient
By the end of 3Q25, around 55 mln mt of cargo had been shipped to the Philippines split across roughly 1,780 voyages. According to AXSMarine data, close to 70% of these vessels secured their next fixtures within the Southeast Asia range, collectively carrying about 40 mln mt of cargo on subsequent voyages. This pattern underscores how the majority of inbound ships find rapid re-employment across short-haul intra-Asia routes, reflecting high fleet turnover and limited idle positioning.
Within this, the Supramax fleet remains the most active segment, handling around 16 mln mt of follow-up liftings, with about 13 mln mt retained within Southeast Asia. After discharging inbound cargoes such as coal, clinker, and steel, many Supramaxes reload nickel ore or steam coal, maintaining short-haul rotations between the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam before extending toward East Australia or the Far East. The Philippines’ central position in these mineral circuits ensures quick turnaround and consistent utilisation across the 50,000–68,000 Dwt range, reinforcing its role as a key hub in the intra-Asian bulk market.
Cargo Still Moves
Heading into 2026, the Philippines’ trade mix is set to keep evolving, with cleaner fuels, higher-value feedstock, and deeper domestic manufacturing. LNG will not replace coal overnight, yet it enhances stability and broadens diversification. For the market, this signals continuity rather than contraction, as Indonesian coal, Vietnamese clinker, and East Asian steel continue to sustain short- and mid-haul bulker activity across Southeast Asia’s key corridors.