Over the past several years, the World Trade Organization’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics has served as an increasingly valuable reference point for assessing the evolving landscape of world commerce. After the upheaval of the early 2020s, the rebound in global trade did not follow a straight or balanced trajectory. Supply chains were reconfigured, manufacturing cycles normalised, and consumer sentiment gradually improved, but the upswing unfolded under the shadow of stubborn inflation, elevated interest rates, and hardening geopolitical blocs. Meanwhile, sweeping technology adoption and energy transitions have been quietly reshaping what the world trades and with whom. The 2023 edition of the WTO outlook captured a moment of cooling momentum after the postpandemic surge, yet by 2024 the narrative shifted toward cautious resilience. The newest forecasts for 2025 and 2026, however, portray a more nuanced landscape – stronger-than-expected short-term performance lifting near-term expectations, followed by a softening trajectory as cyclical and structural pressures re-emerge.
The WTO’s October projections mark a decisive shift in sentiment for 2025. Merchandise trade volumes are now forecast to expand by 2.4 percent, a significant upward revision from 0.9 percent in August and a clear reversal from the negative 0.2 percent contraction anticipated in April. This improvement, however, is offset by a noticeably softer outlook for 2026, with growth revised down to 0.5 percent from an earlier forecast of 1.8 percent. The combined two-year increase of 2.9 percent edges ahead of April’s 2.3 percent forecast, but the distribution of gains is heavily front-loaded. The adjustment reflects a synchronised pull-forward of orders ahead of United States tariff increases, with importers accelerating procurement during late 2024 and early 2025 to pre-empt additional costs. This cushioning effect has been reinforced by surging demand for technology-intensive goods linked to AI deployment – semiconductors, data storage, networking equipment, and broader digital infrastructure – which buoyed intra-Asian manufacturing networks and bolstered transPacific flows. Easing inflation and healthy labour markets helped sustain household consumption in major economies, and targeted fiscal measures in Asia and Europe added an extra layer of support. Yet trade forecasters caution that this favourable combination of drivers is unlikely to persist beyond the first half of 2025.
A closer look at regional performance underscores how uneven the global recovery remains. Asia continued to form the backbone of global trade expansion in early 2025, with outbound volumes rising 10.4 percent year-on-year, supported by steady factory output and intact regional supply chains. Africa and Latin America also posted robust achievements with exports climbing 6.3 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively, while the Middle East saw mild growth and Europe stagnated. Import patterns skewed slightly differently. South America recorded the strongest growth at 14.7 percent, ahead of Africa at 13.7 percent and North America at 9.4 percent, though the latter experienced a sharp sequential pullback. Asia’s imports rose 5.8 percent, whereas Europe (2.4 percent) and the CIS (2.2 percent) trailed behind. Quarter-on-quarter readings make the deceleration more evident: outside Asia, momentum is already fading. The 2026 revisions reinforce this dynamic, with the largest downward adjustments affecting Middle Eastern exports and North American imports, signalling that the delayed drag from higher tariffs and a cooler demand cycle will increasingly weigh on trade.
Beyond volumes, the value of trade flows is also undergoing significant realignment due to the sharp increase in tariff coverage within the G20. Between mid-October 2024 and mid-October 2025, the value of G20 merchandise imports subject to tariffs and other trade restrictions surged to USD 2,599 billion, representing 14.3 percent of total G20 imports and far surpassing the USD 599 billion recorded in the prior period. When accounting for export-side measures, 185 separate actions now affect roughly USD 2,900 billion in trade, more than triple the USD 829 billion previously reported. Interestingly, this protectionist shift has unfolded in parallel with a broad deployment of trade-facilitating measures: 184 initiatives eased trade across goods, covering a cumulative USD 2,055 billion, nearly double the USD 1,070 billion logged in the preceding cycle. In other words, despite growing state intervention in trade, most G20 economies are still leaning toward cooperation rather than escalation.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s assessment captures this tension succinctly: although the international trading order is undergoing the most severe stress since the Second World War, trade networks themselves have proved remarkably resilient. Members are increasingly introducing measures that both restrict and facilitate trade – raising barriers in one direction while lowering them elsewhere – suggesting that governments are attempting to manage political imperatives without dismantling commercial interdependence. The latest monitoring report highlights constructive dialogue among trading partners and renewed efforts to negotiate compromises instead of escalating retaliatory action.
For global shipping markets, the implications of the WTO’s revised outlook are measured rather than directional. Higher trading activity – whether driven by demand-led growth, precautionary stockpiling, or adjustments in supply chains –typically results in additional cargo movements and incremental tonne-mile demand, though the distribution across segments is unlikely to be uniform. In the dry bulk space, continued industrial output in Asia and infrastructure investment in emerging economies remain supportive of seaborne flows of iron ore, coal, bauxite, grain, and minor bulks, but the extent of improvement will hinge on the durability of these macroeconomic drivers. Container markets may experience fluctuations as tariff realignments and supplier diversification reshape established routes, while tanker trades are set to respond to energy demand patterns and further reconfiguration of crude and product flows. Even if the strong early-2025 momentum moderates into 2026, evolving trade relationships and ongoing supply chain recalibration suggest that global shipping activity will remain dynamic. The challenge for market participants will be to navigate an environment where trade continues to expand, but the sources and directions of growth are increasingly variable.
Data source: Doric