In November 2016, the global economy was already contending with the uncertainty unleashed by the Brexit referendum when another political jolt reshaped the world order: the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. His victory, rooted in populist discontent and economic nationalism, marked a turning point for globalisation. The campaign’s rhetoric – centred on restoring domestic industry, revising trade agreements, and confronting China’s export dominance – signalled a clear departure from decades of open-market orthodoxy. Trump’s pledge to launch a $1 trillion infrastructure programme and roll back regulations initially buoyed market sentiment, with US equities rallying sharply in anticipation of fiscal expansion. Yet, beneath the surface, a more cautious mood prevailed. His threats to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports and renegotiate trade deals introduced a new era of policy unpredictability that unsettled global investors and policymakers alike.
Market reactions mirrored this duality of optimism and apprehension. The Dow Jones surged to record highs, while the US dollar strengthened on expectations of reflation and higher yields. Shipping and commodity-related stocks, long pressured by years of oversupply and sluggish trade growth, experienced a brief relief rally as investors speculated on renewed infrastructure-driven demand. However, the optimism proved short-lived. The prospect of protectionist measures and escalating trade frictions quickly cast a shadow over global logistics and manufacturing networks. Western multinationals with deep exposure to cross-border trade began reassessing their supply chains, while Chinese policymakers moved to shield their economy from external shocks by stimulating domestic demand and accelerating industrial upgrading. For China, these developments marked the beginning of a prolonged period of strategic recalibration, as Beijing prepared for the possibility of renewed trade friction and technological decoupling.
Eight years later, in November 2024, history seemed to come full circle. Donald Trump returned to the White House as the 47th President, once again igniting volatility across global markets. His reelection unleashed immediate financial euphoria in the United States. The Dow Jones surged by 1,507 points – its largest single-day gain in two years – while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced by 2.5 percent and 2.95 percent, respectively. The dollar recorded its strongest performance in two years, climbing 1.7 percent against the euro and pound sterling. Bitcoin, often seen as a barometer of speculative sentiment, soared to an all-time high of $75,999. Yet this resurgence in risk appetite was not universal. Across Europe and Asia, markets responded with greater caution. The pan-European Stoxx 600 slipped 0.59 percent amid concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could dampen exports. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI both declined, while in China, the CSI 300 rose 3 percent on the back of unexpectedly strong export data for October, signalling temporary resilience in the face of mounting trade headwinds. The early weeks following Trump’s re-election mirrored the sectoral shifts witnessed eight years prior. US banks rallied sharply, buoyed by expectations of deregulation and wider interest margins. The energy sector also benefited from renewed optimism around fossil fuels. Conversely, renewable energy firms experienced a sharp sell-off.
Trade-sensitive sectors, however, faced renewed uncertainty. US soybean exporters, heavily dependent on Chinese demand, were among the first casualties of Trump’s revived protectionist rhetoric. Fears of escalating tariffs weighed on global trade sentiment, dragging down equity markets across Asia and Europe. In China, BYD shares slipped 3.6 percent amid expectations of higher tariffs on electric vehicles, while European automakers such as BMW and Volkswagen fell by more than 5 percent. For global shipping, the outlook became increasingly divided: energy-linked tanker operators, including Nordic American Tankers, saw significant gains, supported by expectations of higher crude flows, while container carriers such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd fell sharply, reflecting concerns over trade disruptions and softer cargo demand.
Trump’s return to office thus rekindled both the optimism and the uncertainty that defined his first presidency. For China, the renewed protectionist agenda revived familiar pressures on its export-led growth model. So far, China’s export sector has shown a degree of resilience. However, the pace of growth has moderated and structural adjustments are increasingly evident. According to official data, exports rose by around 6.1 percent year-on-year to approximately $2.78 trillion through September. Earlier in the year, between January and May, shipments expanded by 7.2 percent while imports declined 3.8 percent. In the first half of 2025, total trade increased by 2.9 percent to $3.04 trillion. By destination, the pattern of China’s exports is undergoing a clear diversification. Sales to the U.S. have continued to decline – down roughly 10.7 percent year-onyear in the first half – whereas shipments to ASEAN countries rose 13 percent, to Africa 21 percent, and to the E.U. by 7 percent. This shift highlights Beijing’s strategic effort to reduce its reliance on the US market.
By November 2025, China’s export engine began to lose momentum. Customs data for October revealed a 1.1 percent year-on-year decline in exports, the sharpest contraction since February, reversing an 8.3 percent rise the previous month. The fall was largely attributed to the fading effect of front-loading orders from the U.S., as Chinese exporters had rushed shipments in preceding months to circumvent the impending wave of Trump-era tariffs. Exports to the U.S. plunged by over 25 percent year-on-year, underlining China’s ongoing dependence on the American consumer despite Beijing’s persistent efforts to diversify. Economists estimate that the tariffs have shaved roughly 2 percentage points off China’s annual export growth, equivalent to about 0.3 percent of GDP. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. nonetheless rose to $24.76 billion in October, up from $22.82 billion the previous month, as import growth remained muted.
Despite the temporary trade truce between Washington and Beijing, uncertainty remains elevated. While the agreement has eased immediate tensions, most tariffs remain in place, sustaining a climate of caution among exporters and investors. China’s latest trade figures suggest that the earlier surge in shipments – largely front-loaded ahead of tariff deadlines – is now fading. October’s decline in exports underscores that this artificial boost may have run its course. As the world’s two largest economies test the limits of their uneasy détente, the maritime sector finds itself navigating shifting currents – a sea shaped by protectionism, evolving trade routes, and changes in industrial production. For now, freight markets remain supported by short-term fundamentals, with Baltic indices hovering at relatively healthy levels, underpinned by seasonal flows and continued restocking in China. Yet beneath this surface stability, the outlook for 2026 is anything but smooth. The challenge for both the global economy and the shipping industry lies not simply in weathering another trade dispute, but in charting a course through an increasingly multipolar and uncertain world, where each policy shift and market ripple can reverberate across oceans and trade corridors alike.
Data source: Doric