Recent Developments in Indian Coal and Electricity Markets

By Jeffrey Landsberg

Coal India continues to do an admirable job in increasing its coal production. Coal India produced approximately 60.2 million tons of coal last month, which marks a month-on-month increase of 6.4 million tons (12%) and a year-on-year increase of 1.9 million tons (3%). Coal India’s production has continued to climb dramatically since September and has continued to lead to a rise in the nation’s power plant stockpiles.

Offtake totaled 60.7 million tons last month, which marks a month-on-month increase of 3.9 million tons (7%) and a year-on-year increase of 8.1 million tons (15%). Offtake has now increased on a year-on-year basis for ten consecutive months, with last month’s volume setting an all-time high.

The ongoing climb in Coal India's production and offtake has been a primary reason for the nation's power plant stockpiles rising to even higher levels recently. India’s power plant coal stockpiles ended last week at approximately 23.6 million tons, which is 1 million tons (4%) more than was stockpiled at the end of the previous week. While stockpiles have been climbing since mid-October, they are still down year-on-year by 13.3 million tons (-26%) and India's coal import prospects remain bullish.

Also helpful for Indian coal import prospects is that thermal coal-derived has returned to finding growth. India’s coal-derived electricity generation totaled approximately 93.4 billion kilowatt hours last month. This has marked a month-on-month increase of 10.9 billion kilowatt hours (13%) and is up year-on-year by 2 billion kilowatt hours (2%). Last month’s year-on-year growth has marked the largest year-on-year growth seen since August.

In addition, India's hydropower output has continued to decline on a month-on-month basis (which is normal for this year) and has also recently experienced only very small year-on-year growth. India’s hydropower output totaled approximately 8.4 billion kilowatt hours last month. This has marked a month-on-month decline of 1.4 billion kilowatt hours (-14%) and marks year-on-year growth of only 200 million kilowatt hours (2%). Previously, India's hydropower output in November had increased year-on-year by 16%, which marked the largest year-on-year growth seen all year.